NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

The RBNZ releases the property cooling measures implemented rate reductions and NZD lower

This morning, the reserve Bank of new Zealand (RBNZ) has published a consultation document, indicating it intends to adopt further macroprudential measures the country to mitigate systematic risk to the bank mortgages. In a word, the main points are

1. No more than 5 percent of bank lending to residential property investors throughout New Zealand would be allowed with a greater than 60 per cent LVR (ie a deposit less than 40 percent).

2. No more than 10 percent of loans to homeowners across New Zealand would be allowed with an LVR greater than 80 percent (ie a deposit of less than 20 percent).

3. Loans that are exempt from restrictions of existing LVR, including loans for the construction of new housing, continue to be exempted.

Press release here. Press release
Consultation document here. Consultation

The rules will enter into a rapid six weeks in September 1st.

By doing this, the RBNZ tries to remove one of its major roadblocks wise monetary policy. Ie how to reduce rates in a context of low inflation when the housing market is on fire. With a low print on CPI yesterday and Thursday RBNZ update is expected that there will now be a serious conversation on their part vis-à-vis the level of the NZD and intentions re interest rate cuts . It is difficult to interpret in a different way, then they will say the NZD is too high and we can expect a cut at the August meeting and another later in the year.

Certainly, that is what the street is like thinking NZD 2 year swaps make new lows this morning and the NZD fell 80 points 7030. There is certainly no good news on NZD cards this morning.

Our old friend NZD / CAD weekly. Neckline resistance held in 9530.

Support now at 00.

NZD / USD weekly . Double greater than 7305, 100 weeks moving average at 7115.

top bracket of the weekly cloud in 6917.

daily NZDJPY . Support Test here at 74.60. 7410. The next support
resistance 74.0 cloud base and the moving average at 100 days.

daily AUDNZD . Goodness me what a rally this week! Resistance 1.0800 100DMA and cloud top and 0 DMA at 1.0840. Support 1.0630

support 1.0630, below the cloud.

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NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

The RBNZ releases the property cooling measures implemented rate reductions and NZD lower

This morning, the reserve Bank of new Zealand (RBNZ) has published a consultation document, indicating it intends to adopt further macroprudential measures the country to mitigate systematic risk to the bank mortgages. In a word, the main points are

1. No more than 5 percent of bank lending to residential property investors throughout New Zealand would be allowed with a greater than 60 per cent LVR (ie a deposit less than 40 percent).

2. No more than 10 percent of loans to homeowners across New Zealand would be allowed with an LVR greater than 80 percent (ie a deposit of less than 20 percent).

3. Loans that are exempt from restrictions of existing LVR, including loans for the construction of new housing, continue to be exempted.

Press release here. Press release
Consultation document here. Consultation

The rules will enter into a rapid six weeks in September 1st.

By doing this, the RBNZ tries to remove one of its major roadblocks wise monetary policy. Ie how to reduce rates in a context of low inflation when the housing market is on fire. With a low print on CPI yesterday and Thursday RBNZ update is expected that there will now be a serious conversation on their part vis-à-vis the level of the NZD and intentions re interest rate cuts . It is difficult to interpret in a different way, then they will say the NZD is too high and we can expect a cut at the August meeting and another later in the year.

Certainly, that is what the street is like thinking NZD 2 year swaps make new lows this morning and the NZD fell 80 points 7030. There is certainly no good news on NZD cards this morning.

Our old friend NZD / CAD weekly. Neckline resistance held in 9530.

Support now at 00.

NZD / USD weekly . Double greater than 7305, 100 weeks moving average at 7115.

top bracket of the weekly cloud in 6917.

daily NZDJPY . Support Test here at 74.60. 7410. The next support
resistance 74.0 cloud base and the moving average at 100 days.

daily AUDNZD . Goodness me what a rally this week! Resistance 1.0800 100DMA and cloud top and 0 DMA at 1.0840. Support 1.0630

support 1.0630, below the cloud.

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OANDA MP – Oil Rebound Sparks Revival (Video)

OANDA MP – Oil Rebound Sparks Revival (Video)

Tuesday oil rebound has provided a big boost to commodity currencies and similar clues Tuesday. Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam takes a look at some of the tables and gives his analysis on Brent Crude, Dow 30, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold and silver.

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USD/JPY Technicals – Slightly Bearish Amidst Still Water

USD/JPY Technicals – Slightly Bearish Amidst Still Water

USD / JPY has not been directionless since mid April, but the price was moving with wild swings above and below the axle ~ 98.0. This is a reflection of market sentiment which is clearly confused. On the one hand, more and more investors / speculators start losing / have lost confidence in the ability of BOJ and Abenomic artificially weaken Yen more - resulting in gains capped in USD / JPY. Moreover, the Japanese economic fundamentals are brighter than before to research suggesting that abenomics BOJ stimulus and earn at least some traction. But again, the overall Japanese economy remains weak, and there are signs that the increase in the CPI growth rate has not really translated into economic productivity, and therefore there are more who are beginning to recover questioning the overall strategy of an inflation target of 2%.

as a result of this confusion continued, fluctuations in the volatility of USD / JPY has declined steadily. 4 weeks Average True Range decreased from a peak of ~ 400 pips aware ~ 50 pips, the same levels before the prodigious rally late 2012. Safe to say, the rally seems to have effectively ended. Right now, the market is revaluation phase, and waiting for signals from BOJ / Prime Minister Abe.

In this regard, the Bank of Japan was frustrating to say the least. Latest Statement on Monetary Policy on October 31 was a simple case two sentences. There was no mention of the economy, no mention of recent economic events and their impact on Japan, or even if the current level of Yen and interest rates support the inflation target of 2%. They are not helpful and does not provide guidance before the market is looking for now. that meeting minutes were published earlier today, which provided a little more insight than the declaration. But management still ahead is lacking. There was usually mentions that the economy is "moderate recovery", and the risk of an uncertain US monetary policy has been raised, but there was nothing about what the possible answers BOJ would. As such, the market is still not wiser, and this lack of Yen volatility will most likely drag on.

Time Table

from the point of purely technical view, prices are currently being bearish bias negotiation within a soft descending channel. This is in line with the bearish stochastics cycle signal that is currently in. However, a temporary bullish decline is possible that the price has labeled Bottom Canal opens a Top channel pass. There is also the priority for Stoch curve to bounce higher from the level of 60.0, which increases the probability of an upward thrust.

Weekly Chart

weekly chart shows prices faced resistance of the ascending trend line, but stochastic readings are optimistic in its own "consolidation band." However, price volatility down, the likelihood of price breaking the trend line upward decreases, thus a downward movement towards the axle 98.0 mentioned earlier is favored. stochastic readings sort of agreement with "medium" level around 40.0 counteract potentially strong bearish momentum, which reduces the likelihood of prices going too far below the axle 98.0

:. links
AUD / USD - 0.95 Key Resistance Level now offers
EUR / USD - tries to keep 1 35
GBP / USD - surges strongly support the 1.59

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD Technicals – Do Not Mistake Volatility As True Bullish Sentiment

AUD/USD Technicals – Do Not Mistake Volatility As True Bullish Sentiment

If someone told you that normal trading resumed, simply point to him / her AUD / USD hourly chart. Prices have traded at a low of around 0.884 yesterday, before pushing all the way up to more than 0.894 for a total of 0 pips return within 12 hours. It should also be noted that the extraordinary gathering, held at the beginning of the US session has not been seen in EUR / USD or GBP / USD, suggesting that AUD / USD can move on its own right now.

hourly chart

The above observation suggests that AUD / USD is in a state of flux and high volatility should continue to be expected. In this regard, the current break 0.8926 / 27 can not be a strong indication of bullish trend, but a mere reflection of high volatility. Certainly a push towards recent high of just swing above 0,895 is possible, but do not expect strong bullish bias followed by beyond. Similarly, do not assume that bearish sentiment is strong, even if the prices fail to hold its ground above resistance turned support. Looking at recent historical action, it is likely that the price could find support on either the 38.2% or 50.0% Fib retracement and more whipsaw between 0.884 -. 0.895 can wait until the return of normality

Table Daily

Daily chart suggests that a bullish breakout Channel is game, but the bulls will break above 0.89 to confirm the breakout. Interestingly, current upward venture can not tilt the stoch curve the highest point, and the current bullish momentum that started after QE Tapering December 18 remains at risk of spilling. Even if the price breaks 0.895 resolutely and managed to push the curve Stoch higher once again, we are too close to overbought levels for current bullish momentum to have any kind of meaningful follow. 0.03 a test is possible, but it is just as likely, if not more, that prices may weaken the round number of 0.0

Links :.
EUR / USD Technical - Either can Direction After Stabilize
GBP / USD - Steady As UK Manufacturing PMI Dips
S & P 500 - Hangover New Year that decline Price On Profit Taking

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – Pushing Lower On USD Weakness

USD/INR Technicals – Pushing Lower On USD Weakness

Weekly Chart

The USD slide last week has greatly benefited from the battered rupee, and perhaps again saved Rupee to new lows. The prices were threatening to escape the Top Channel that would have seen accelerating to 70.0 in the coming weeks, but we stopped short by a weak USD from speculators believe the Fed explores a tapered event December. Whether this is true is debatable, that the market earned their belief so-called "pacifist" declarations of Janet Yellen. But the fact remains -. USD / INR pushes down and threatening to break the channel rising again

If Top Channel be violated, the consolidation area ceiling beneath will be the obvious downside target. It is possible that prices may find some support there, or maybe just a support under the ceiling similar to what happened in mid October. Indeed, the stochastic readings suggest that the bearish momentum is likely oversold when this happens, and whereas the general trend is more oriented all the way since August 2013, there are always technical trend for bulls to recover. When we add to this the economic fundamentals continue to favor a lower INR, the risk of a sudden and unexpected bounce becomes even higher.

Time Table

short-term pressure continues to favor INR at the moment, partly because of the risk on appetite which led Sensex 1.68% higher at the moment. However, the scenario can change quickly with the support face price of 62.5 round figure which is confluence November 8 Swing Low. Stochastic readings also approaching oversold territory with tapered flat curve Stoch. Therefore, even if 62.5 is broken, it is likely that prices may find support from the descending trend line and higher bounce.

But there could be more graces saving for USD / INR this week. If US operators maintain their hyper-sensitivity to cone QE speculation, we have many opportunities for further USD weakness that can send prices lower. US NAHB index of housing prices, Advance retail sales and perhaps even the CPI numbers can cause huge reactions this week, even though such news would have been considered "low" in the past. If all the numbers come lower than expected, it is likely that USD will push down even faster, resulting in a lower USD / INR can bring us back to 61.3 again.

However astute traders realize that it will not be able to change the long-term dynamics, where Rupee remains inherently weak due to poor fundamentals. Case in point, when USD weakened back in August and late September due to stop US Governmental / Debt Crisis ceiling, USD / INR did not fall down, but ultimately rise again. Therefore, do not bet that just because the volatility of short-term news can sink USD / INR, prices will be able to remove a long-term bearish reversal without RBI do something radical to change the fortunes of India.

Links:
Gold Technicals - Bearish Moderately But Bulls May Lurk
AUD / USD Technicals - Bumpy Journey To 0,943 expected
EUR / USD Technicals - 1.35 Resistance Strong hold

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.82 But Don’t Expect Landslide

NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.82 But Don’t Expect Landslide
]

Time Table

Kiwi dollar collected in the first hour after the starting market trading this week, led by declines in USD that affected all pairs of USD across the board. However, prices were unable to sustain the pressure above the .820 to .822 resistance band which has been in the game since last Thursday and has since returned lower. Currently we are trading below the open this week and the below 0.819 flexible support point of negotiation which could potentially open up a move towards 0,815 support

There are additional bearish signs as well -. The thrust of this morning is the lowest bullish 3 attempts to break the resistance band mentioned above, with prices that can not match the peaks of the swing Thursday and Friday. In addition, the immediate bearish reaction followed the failure seems to be the strongest among the same few attempts to increase, suggesting that the downward pressure is greatest and a push beyond 0815 should not be excluded. In addition, stochastic readings are suitable, with the stochastic crossing curve signal line and promoting a down cycle going forward. However, it should be noted that the curve Stoch should ideally grow below 65.0 to 68.0 show the strongest conviction decline. This reinforcement of the notion that prices will clear the level of 0.819 before stronger bearish momentum may follow. Not doing so does not invalidate necessary current bearish bias, but certainly can allow bulls to hold for a little while longer.

Table Daily

daily chart is similar bearish, but the two studies on indicators and the stochastic lines suggest that the price may not be able to hit a low maximum of 0.81 in the near future - because of the level of multi-month media seen in conjunction with stochastic curve tell us that the greatest current down cycle part is already over . This perspective is also in line with fundamentals that promotes NZD higher in 2014 and 2015 because of rising prospects rate RBNZ, with the first round of rate hike should come in March 2014, and much more to come from 2.25% in total. Although RBNZ explicitly stated that they prefer to see NZD lower, it is unlikely they will be able to see it happen for their own term rates rise. In addition, it is unlikely that they will be too unhappy with NZD higher as this would contribute to the fight against inflation at the same time prevent hot money too to enter New Zealand as foreigners seeking higher transportation. Therefore, expect NZD remains well supported against the dollar, while the greenback should get higher against all major currencies with QE Tapering becoming a real thing

Links :.
week FX Americas - Bernanke Tapers on his final FOMC
week FX Asia - abenomics First year The end of deflation
week FX in Europe - European Union on the naughty list S & P downgraded to AA +

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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