Kamis, 07 Juli 2016

GBP/USD – Relying on Support at 1.5950 Level

GBP/USD – Relying on Support at 1.5950 Level

GBP / USD for Friday, October 11, 2013

In last month, the GBP / USD has rallied and surged sharply higher to go through many levels that was punctuated by a push to its highest level for the year just above 1.6250. For the last week but it was easing back to 1.60 and 1.5950 with the latter recently broken level in the last day or two. In the last 24 hours, it rallied above 1.5950 receiving support at this level. A few weeks ago, he found strong support from the 1.5950 level which helped to move at the level of 1.6250, and it relies on that level again now. There stall around 1.59 to 1.5950 for a few days there a few weeks before clearing the congestion zone. There are about a month, it fell to two weeks low near 1.54 before rallying back to 1.5550. The week before he did well to maintain its level above the 1.56 key level and in the process of moving to a new two-month above 1.57, which was overtaken by the recent summit. She immediately fell sharply, but continued to receive strong support from the level of 1.56 before closing below at the end of this week.

Back in the middle of August the pound jumped higher level through the 1.56 resistance and then a two-month high around 1.5650, before passing the next few days to consolidate and trade in a range close around 1.5650, receiving the support of the key 1.56 level. There are some months, the 1.54 resistance level proves to be strong enough, and once he crossed the pound surged to a fresh seven weeks high near 1.56 in a solid 48 hours period term. In the week before that the book had rebounded strongly and returned at the previous resistance at 1.54 after the week earlier undo some of his good work and strong apostasy of the 1.54 resistance level down to about 1.5150 and low two weeks. There are a few weeks, the level of 1.54 resistance was firm and the pound fell heavily away, but the support level of 1.51 was decisive and strongly contributed to the rally of the pound.

Earlier in July, after doing very little for about a week, the GBP / USD began to move and jump higher and move through the levels of 1.52 and 1.53 to the one-month high above 1.54. Before the movement above, it moved very little because it has found strong support at 1.51 and traded in a narrow range above that level. He established a trading range between 1.51 and 1.52 after taking a break from his excitement when just before she experienced strong higher thrust moving to the scope of the 1.52 level below 1.49, the while 24 hours. There are about a month, he did well to climb off the canvas and move above 1.49 and towards 1.50 before seeing again the book and reverse back down below 1.49 to a new multi-year low near 1.48. He experienced heavy falls of 1.53 mobile to level long-term key to 1.50, then 1.49. This movement has seen resume its bearish medium-term trend already well established in the second half of June and the move to a four-month low.

The International Monetary Fund urged George Osborne to boost spending on infrastructure in Britain, despite the upward revision of its growth forecast for the UK more than any other developed country. In a generally pessimistic assessment of the state of the global economy, the Fund based in Washington said it now expects the pace of expansion to be significantly higher than it was three months. But it triggered a new dispute between Osborne and his Labour shadow Ed Balls to whether the government's austerity program had helped or hindered the recovery of the deepest recession in Britain's post-war. half yearly global economic outlook Fund cut its forecast for global growth in 2013 and 2014, accusing the impact of clumsy attempts to reduce the budget deficit in the US and a slowdown in major emerging market economies. But he said the UK had bucked the trend, the revision of its estimates of growth by 0.5 point to 1.4% in 2013 and by 0.4 points to 1.9% in 2014. The IMF has embarrassed the chancellor in his WEO in April this year, when he called on the UK to ease up on its austerity plans to enhance recovery prospects. Although THECITY forecasts growth of about 1% in the third quarter, the Fund renewed its call for higher public spending.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

Cable_20131011 Cable_20131011_4hour

GBP / 11 USD October at 00:45 GMT H 1.5970: 1.5979 L : 1.5913

GBP / technical USD

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.5950 1.5800 - 1.6100 1.6250 -

During the first hours of the Asian session on Friday, GBP / USD is consolidating in a narrow range just below 1.60 after rallying back above the support level at 1.5950. Since the middle of June the pound has fallen sharply from the level of resistance at 1.57 down to the long-term key level at 1.50 and is now enjoying a strong resurgence in the last two months return movement of above 1.62 and its highest point for the year. Current range: Just below 1.60 around 1.5980

Other levels in both directions :.

• The following :. 1.5950 and 1.5800

• Above :. 1.6100 and 1.6250

Open Ratios position OANDA

Cable_20131011_ratio

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs outfit for the GBP / USD. between all OANDA clients left percentage (blue) shows long positions, the percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

report GBP / USD long positions is moved below 30% again the GBP /. USD pushed above 1.5950. Trader sentiment remains largely in favor of short positions.

Economic Releases

  • 11:50 p.m. (game) JP M2 money supply (September)
  • 11:50 p.m. (game) JP CGPI (seven )
  • 12:30 CA unemployment (seven)

* All times are GMT release of

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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Rabu, 06 Juli 2016

USD/INR Technicals – Strong Bearish Potential With Rupee Gaining Back Strength

USD/INR Technicals – Strong Bearish Potential With Rupee Gaining Back Strength

Little has changed since new RBI governor Rajan took over, but that did not stop to Indian Rupee assess, with prices currently violating below the up key on the Top channel (see weekly chart below) and will end under if we continue to remain around current levels. The reason for the increase in strength is due to market expectations that Rajan will continue to raise rates in the near future. RBI surprised the market last Friday with an increase in repo rate when everyone expected a lower marginal rate permanent mechanism (MSF) to improve liquidity. In addition, there are reports suggesting that RBI may use consumer price inflation as the main gauge of inflation going forward. This in itself does not mean much, but given the hawkishness of Rajan, seems to be a movement to justify further rate hikes as inflation figures for consumption were constantly in motion while higher the traditional gauge of inflation (using large numbers) are down slightly due to the economic downturn.

This is actually a good thing, as RBI tackles head on inflation monster. However, with market prices higher rates, the economy will further lower reservoir. In response to this, Rajan chose to inject 1.5 Trillion Rupiah in the financial system every day, and promised to participate in open market operations to ensure adequate liquidity. Will it be enough? Nobody really knows right now. Moreover, all these are just paper talk and there is very little action is happening right now. But at least for now, it seems the market is to believe in Rajan and his plan to save both Rupee and the economy.

Time Table

http://www.marketpulse.com/mserve/USDINR_270913H1.PNG

This is clearly via price action where prices have declined to levels last Friday before the curious increase in RBI rate that pushed lower Rupee. The feeling has now returned to that trust and allowing USD / INR to the lower ongoing negotiations, even if USD is actually trading higher, beating all major currencies except CHF. USD should weaken again, we could potentially see even more rapid decline in USD / INR can take us below the (low after announcement FOMC) 61.30.

From a purely technical perspective, prices have pushed out of the descending channel top, coinciding with stochastic readings push higher with an upward cycle signal. However, it is unlikely that prices will be able to violate the RBI rate level consolidation hiking 62.25 readings station will most likely be in the overbought region when this happens.

Weekly Chart

http://www.marketpulse.com/mserve/USDINR_270913W1.PNG

price is also downward through the weekly chart, especially if we start Monday with a bearish gap fast. However, it is likely that we will find support through the consolidation range between 59.0 to 61.25 as it is likely that Stoch levels will most likely hit oversold when this happens. In addition, technical withdrawal should be expected after such a strong and continuous downward trend of 69.0. As the rebound / pullback does not negotiate over the English Channel on the rise, the likelihood of progression to remain Bottom Channel

Links :.
NZD / USD Technical - remain under 0.83
Rhyme And Reason Not A Concern EURO Dollar Gold
or technicals - Higher on concerns the US Budget

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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Selasa, 05 Juli 2016

AUD/USD – NFP Uncertainty Trumps Bearish RBA Statement

AUD/USD – NFP Uncertainty Trumps Bearish RBA Statement

Australian dollar traded lower this morning after the publication of the Monetary Policy Statement RBA. In the RBA has lowered growth forecasts for 2014, citing mining investments due to reduced growth decline. High AUD is also another factor that has been cited with RBA saying that the lower exchange rate probably needed to ensure stable growth.

AUD / USD pushed to a low of 0.9428 after the news, but prices recovered quickly after the release of Chinese trade balance numbers. October Trade Balance came in at $ 31.10B USD, more than twice in September led by stronger than expected exports - 5.6% against 1.7% expected and a reversal from -0.3% in September. With Australia's economy closely linked to China's economic health, a stronger trade balance is always welcomed, lifting AUD / USD dip.

Time Table

AUDUSD_081113H1

However, it should be noted that the import growth rate remained relatively stable at 7.6 %, slightly better than 7.4% expectation. Therefore, the strong recovery that followed gave the overall downward air (due to the RBA orientation and the number of small jobs) seems a bit optimistic especially since it's right on the heels of more bearish ads just an hour before.

This observation can be explained if we consider the technical factors - prices hit bottom support channel that happens to be the confluence with the support level at the close of last Friday, while the readings stochastic were bouncing higher after briefly dipping into the oversold zone. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that Chinese data submitted bullish reaction was exaggerated because of the bullish technical influences. This is confirmed when the rally was covered by the resistance of the channel top, opening a potential move to the bottom of the canal again.

Another possible reason would be the announcement of the nonfarm payroll United States later today. NFP print market expects a weaker than expected which would result in the Fed refraining from tapering QE in the coming months (or so they believe). As such, USD has always been to have a predisposition for reflex weakened, resulting in the strong upward movement in AUD / USD on the Chinese news.

That being said, with the market already prices in a weak USD scenario advance of the actual advert NFP, the risk of the opposite occurrence becomes greater - due to the typical buy rumor sell the new behavior . Therefore, the probability of prices heading Bottom Channel finally (maybe next week, if not post NFP) increases. Even in the AUD / USD most optimistic scenario where NFP came in negative, AUD / USD may still remain bearish as long as price stay below 0.952 at 954 ceiling

Links :.
EUR / USD Technical - Evaluation of the ECB Aftermath
GBP / USD - Resistance remains around 1.61
AUD / USD - Drift continues below 0.95

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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Senin, 04 Juli 2016

USD/INR Technicals – Bearish Below 62.0 But Long Term Follow-Through Suspect

USD/INR Technicals – Bearish Below 62.0 But Long Term Follow-Through Suspect

Time Table

USDINR_021213H1

Indian rupee continues to strengthen this morning with USD / INR is currently testing the round figure of 62.0 support. Main reason for this gain can be attributed to the inflow of funds in Indian stocks on the back of improving economic sentiment in India as a result than expected Q3 GDP print much stronger (+ 4.8% Y / Y vs. 4.6% expected and 4.4% previous), which led main stock index Sensex by 1.25% last Friday.

Latest Chinese manufacturing PMI official figures that were released during the weekend still the risk appetite fuel, piling downward pressure USD / INR as Sensex trading continues higher. This additional downward push will go a long way in helping USD / INR bears stand side chain that prices have been stuck in since November 26, and we could see a further downward movement (in small groups) if appetite the risk remains bullish.

Weekly Chart

USDINR_021213W1

weekly chart Techniques promotes downward pressure to 61.3 (the consolidation ceiling July). Other downside targets may be possible that the assertion of Top Channel maintenance naturally opens up Bottom Channel ultimate downside target. However, similar to the short-term chart, the Stochastic indicator is close to "oversold", promoting decision-61.3 support and not an immediate move toward the channel bottom (or maybe even 59.0 Floor Consolidation ), which traders should be aware that the -Thanks bearish monitoring may not be as strong as they think and additional confirmation may be required.

also Fundamentals do not support a strong rupee. Although the most recent GDP data is encouraging, it should be noted that it is much lower than the initial estimates of around 6% + that was made earlier this year. Moreover, economists have estimated that India will need a growth Y / Y from 6.5% to support the current labor market, a number less than 6.5% would mean that we could see more unemployment in the future. Therefore, the current euphoria about India's economy is only due to the bar being too small, and increase the risk of a possible upward recoil when Rupee starts to weaken again

links :.
GBP / USD - Almost two-year high around 1.6430
Gold Technicals - Sideshifts With Bumpy week ahead
AUD / USD - finds solid support at 0.91

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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Minggu, 03 Juli 2016

USD/INR Technicals – Heading Towards 62.4 As INR Weakens

USD/INR Technicals – Heading Towards 62.4 As INR Weakens

Rupee remains stable against Greenback despite the sudden weakness yesterday in USD in early US session which led AUD / USD, EUR / USD and GBP / USD rising. Even more strange is that USD / INR actually collected higher over time, suggesting that indeed Rupee weakened even more than Greenback, highlighting the downward trend of the currency of India has weakened more than 1% against USD since the beginning of the year.

guilty of the weakness seen in INR comes from the weakening Sensex, which has seen four consecutive days of decline and is likely to chalk a day. With share prices falling, there is very little reason for investors to keep their funds in India since the inflation rate far exceeded deposit rates, resulting in the devaluation of the Rupee.

Time Table

USDINR_070114H1

Currently USD / INR is essentially flat, trading in a band between 62.1 to 62.5 . However, without weakening USD, one wonders if USD / INR would be able to go much higher and perhaps even pushed beyond 62.5 previously. Stochastic readings were flat, but a new low has been formed with the curve Stoch crosses the signal line from below, suggesting that the upward trend that began early in the trading session of the US yesterday can be resumed, the price for hitting to the gentle resistance of 62.4 in the near term.

Weekly Chart

USDINR_070114W1

the long-term direction agrees with an upward thrust in line with that fundamental with a weak economy India vs strong narrative of the US economy. Moreover, even if we consider that prices have failed in the uplink Channel and should open the downside target in the medium term channel bottom, it should be noted that the prices are in the midst of a rebound of 61.3 support and a new Top channel test is equally if not more likely. This is in line with what we say Stochastic, where the curve of stoch highest peak, say we are now in a bull whose starting point coincides with the rebound of 61.3

Connections:.
EUR / USD Technical - Bears maintain pressure Despite Pullback bullish yesterday
AUD / USD Technical - Indifference Bears improved trade balance, rising share prices
Gold Technicals - Bearish Sentiment Seen soft After Plunge Sudden

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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Sabtu, 02 Juli 2016

NZD/USD Technicals – Pushing Lower Towards S/T and L/T Support Levels

NZD/USD Technicals – Pushing Lower Towards S/T and L/T Support Levels

All central banks are equal, but some central banks are more equal than other [

case in point, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said they are increasing rates between 2014 and early 2016, but this did not stimulate NZD / USD higher, although NZD received a further boost last week with a stronger than expected Q3 GDP growth of 1.4%. Instead, the market chose to focus more on the cone of the Fed, sending NZD / USD to a low of 0,815 after the US central bank announced its decision to shave the monthly purchase current QE of $ 10 billion, a "symbolic" gesture by Bernanke as the rest of the members of the FOMC were hawkish calls for cutting $ 20 billion. The Fed noted that further reductions will follow in the future, but Bernanke was much more discreet about when and how the cuts will come, and is much less open compared to Gov. RBNZ Wheeler who has committed a total value of 2 25% of the rate hike. the bias of the market for a stronger USD is so huge right now we suspect NZD / USD may continue lower, though RBNZ rate hike at this time.

Again, the obvious favoritism to market the Fed on the respective policy measures RBNZ is understandable. USD is much more diffused and US rates much watched as NZD and pure difference in the results between the two central banks means that Fed policy will impact the world economy much more than RBNZ. Therefore, we should not be surprised that USD gains against NZD, although the case of a stronger USD is actually lower than NZD.

Time Table

NZDUSD_261213H1

what it means is that we could see continued downward pressure on NZD / USD. Currently we are trading below the 0.8174 support flexible, with decline seen in the last hour unable to overcome the resistance became support. This opens a move towards 0,815, a notion that is supported by Stochastic with its bearish cycle ongoing. However, since the stochastic readings are close to the oversold region, it is unlikely that the price will be able to breach 0,815 and push further especially as the volume of transactions in the last days of 2013 will be low and very unlikely to follow through will be strong. Even if followed through, there is the danger that slide in a low volume environment may not be an accurate reflection of market sentiment, and the risk of a sharp decline when there is good service CV January 2014.

weekly chart

NZDUSD_261213W1Retry

downward pressure in the weekly chart is strong as well, with prices testing the trend line rising. However, similar to the short-term chart, stochastic readings are close to oversold, and it is likely that the price will find support around 0.81, although prices manage to break the rising trendline. Traders are waiting to see the bearish momentum can pick up finish hugely disappointed. This price does not mean will not be able to break 0.81 in the future though. If the market will continue to promote the tapered Fed action on rate hikes RBNZ, we could see the bearish services resume in early 2014, especially if the rebound of 0.81 fail to break au above the downward trend line

links :.
AUD / USD Technical - Mild Support Seen Versus bearish backdrop Strong
EUR / USD Technical - Bearish Pressure Intact But do not expect Slide Sudden
GBP / USD - Pound disdain Sharp US data

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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Jumat, 01 Juli 2016

NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.83 But L/T Follow-through unlikely

NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.83 But L/T Follow-through unlikely
dollar

Kiwi remains firmly on the backfoot today. Prices were already depressed during the US session yesterday led by a concern stimulus hint that led USD higher, with prices remaining close to 0.83 round number support in the early hours of Asia . Strong economic data (ANZ Job Advertisements and Business NZ Performance Manufacturing Index) published (5.00 -5.30am SGT) probably helped 0.83 to take at first, but the level of support finally gave way, causing a strong downward thrust and hitting a low of 0.8261.

timetable

NZDUSD_230114H1

The main reason for this decline appears to be technical pressure, the price has been consistently supported less by descending trend line is at stake for the decline in early US session. The break of 0.83 is further fueled by surprisingly weak data compiled by HSBC Manufacturing PMI, which hit a low 6 months with a 49.6 print. It also suggests that Chinese manufacturing is actually down compared to the expectation of a modest increase to 50.6.

However, it is interesting to see prices bounce before 0.826 support is marked when the price should have been able to significantly lower trade, since bears are on a fresh roll off the break 0 83. This implies that the overall feeling is not as bearish as we think it is. In addition, the price rebound allows a new channel to take, suggesting that technical pressures are still strong enough. Given all this, the probability of prices break the newly formed descending channel becomes less, and a push toward the bottom of the English Channel and down swing around 0.821 is possible should bearish rejection was confirmed.

Graph Daily

NZDUSD_230114D1

This notion is echoed by daily chart, which goes further by suggesting that the ultimate downside target would be 0,815 as the downward thrust of the consolidation ceiling remains intact. Stochastic readings pointing up now, but it is possible that the stoch curve can reverse given the priority in the past which made a 50.0 "resistance."

Basically, it is possible that prices are bearish for now because FX traders are looking to the FOMC rate decision next week and I think the Fed will implement the next cone. There are some problems with this view - firstly, timing candles QE should not really affect USD towards the long term because it is a fact that the stimulus will end one day, and date is likely to be in 2015. Second, the market reaction to economic issues bullish / bearish are not reversed, suggesting that traders are no longer worrying about whether such new persuade / dissuade the Fed to implement the next tapered action. Therefore, traders hope that the outcome of the FOMC next week will lead NZD / USD long-term decline will find themselves disappointed when the dust settled even if the Fed to implement a new cone. In addition, the RBNZ will make its own policy announcement just hours after the announcement of the FOMC who can deny the bearish impact of any sharp action

Links :.
GBP / USD - Looks threatening resistance at 1.66 Again
AUD / USD - Returns to the key 0.88 level
EUR / USD - Continue to stroll around the 1.3550 Key Level

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.


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