AUD/USD Technicals – 0.895 Key For S/T Direction

AUD/USD Technicals – 0.895 Key For S/T Direction
Direction

interesting move in AUD / USD saw today. Price was bullish on Monday when meeting open, but the bullish momentum was defeated at the first request to the soft resistance 0.897 finally held despite management bulls to climb above briefly. Even the extra push to enter the ascending channel (see below) did not help the bulls consolidate their high position, and instead of falling to 0.895 actually helps affirm the breakout of the channel inversion previously bullish bias in one current bearish.

timetable

to be fair, the bulls have had a difficult task to remove whereas weaker PMI HSBC China service numbers were released during the key moment where resistance has been tested 0.897. Therefore, we should not automatically assume that the current support 0,895 break easily, like a rebound to 0.897 can be possible again. Stochastic readings agree with the curve flattening Stoch already. The readings are not on the oversold territory, but a depression is still possible considering that the previous trough were seen around the same levels.

However, if 0895 breaks, the next important level is 0.884, but expect 0.89 round number to set up a reasonable fight especially as the volume of transactions remains on the low side and directional tracking is should not be far away.

Daily chart

Daily Graphic echoed through bearishness seen on daily chart. Stochastic readings have recently formed a peak in conjunction with the bearish rejection of the round figure of resistance 0.0. This opens a Top channel pass or 0.882 least that is the lowest of the consolidation of December -. And potentially the confluence with the Top channel if the price is improbable and highly cut down by

Fundamentals not changed all that, with AUD / USD remain assigned to head lower in 2014 given the strength dollar continues and weak Australian economic growth. However, expect strong buying interest should carry traders AUD / USD drops too low, which will continue to support AUD / USD and prevent prices from sliding too fast. A more likely price action would be the observed decline in mid-October when the price went lower in measured steps. Again, since US10Y breached the 3.0% level, there is a chance that interest rates will go higher from here. As it is, a 3% return is already much more attractive than the interest given transport taking AUD / USD, and the holding of 10Y Treasury does not expose you to currency risk, and will certainly decrease the interest postponement. Therefore, there is a chance that bear interest can not be as high as we think and traders trying to fade declines carry traders hoping to support the rebound may end up being wrong more often than right.

Links:
EUR / USD Technical - Triple Top formed Waiting for confirmation
Gold Technicals - Internal Trade S / T uptrend channel
GBP / USD - Pound drops start in 2014

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – S/T Bearish Trend Intact, Long-Term Outlook Mixed

USD/INR Technicals – S/T Bearish Trend Intact, Long-Term Outlook Mixed

Time Table

downtrend in USD / INR continues despite the rebound seen during the European session yesterday. Prices remain capped below by Top Channel, with Stochastic indicator showing a bear market signal. Bottom Channel becomes an obvious target on the downside, and there may be a strong downward price acceleration should violation 62.2 in conjunction with stochastic pushing below 60.0.

If prices push above 62.45, further upward pressure can not be ignored, with 62.8 immediate becoming bullish objective. However, the overall bearish bias is still disabled, increasing the likelihood of a retreat to Top Channel again. Price should preferably grow above 63.3 before the downward pressure can be facilitated.

It is also important to note that USD / INR decreased in recent days due to the weak USD. If USD strength to return to the game, this short-term bearish bias will be reassessed. As it is currently there are first signs that the strong dollar may return. pacifist speech yesterday by Bernanke, Yellen and Evans failed to impress the market with stocks, gold prices fall and Bond. This suggests that speculators who were betting on a non-cone results in December FOMC may be fully saturated, and we could see long-term fundamental drivers playing a greater impact going forward.

Weekly Chart

This means that prices may be on track to return to 70.0. Currently prices are trading below the channel top, but we are still far from a bearish confirmation. Hence the probability of a false break is high. Likewise, stochastic readings link below and cross the signal line, but we are located very close to oversold territory with the previous bullish signal barely take off. Without pushing below the recent low of 20.0 above, the upward cycle can technically stay in the game, once more the chances of a false break

is not catastrophic for Rupee however, International Finance Corp -. The financial arm of the World Bank, published Rupee denominated bonds for the first time in the program related rupee USD $ 1B. The first tranche of the issue of 3Y bonds priced at 7.75%, which is close to the Indian government bonds of the same maturity (7.59 __gVirt_NP_NN_NNPS <__% to 8.07% for 3Y and 4Y). The demand was much higher than expected, with investors who want as much as 20 billion INR against the size of the planned issuance of IFC 3-10000000000 between INR. Strong demand for INR related products is a good sign that foreign investors have not yet given up on the INR and implies that investors do not believe the INR depreciated will not be too much in the coming years.

Therefore, even if the USD / INR is planned to rally outside of here, do not expect the same kind of upward momentum in May and expect along the way a lot more resistance

links :.
AUD / USD - based on the support at 0.94
EUR / USD - Moves to three weeks above 1.3550
GBP / USD - Runs on wall of resistance at 1.6150

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Surprise Push Above 1.37 But Bulls Unable To Hold Gains

EUR/USD Technicals – Surprise Push Above 1.37 But Bulls Unable To Hold Gains

Time Table

Our analysis yesterday, which stated that the EUR / USD remains well supported turned after all, but we must say that the push above 1.37 was still quite unexpected. Prices have since dropped below the 1369 resistance and back into the consolidation area of ​​the breakout before Monday, but prices should remain strong with stochastic readings suggesting that sell-off is already oversold. This increases the likelihood 1.367 retention bracket and open the possibility to retest 1.369.

Table Daily

However, long-term prospect for EUR / USD remains bearish according to the Daily chart. The rally yesterday failed to rise above the rising trend line, suggesting that the post FOMC QE Tapering breakout remain in play, and push downward from here will be promoted. However, stochastic readings also allow the possibility of a short-term rebound, with the curve Stoch potentially bounces on the "support level" of 40.0, which may even trigger a full bullish reversal from there should successfully Price to rise above the rising trend line.

on the root, USD should strengthen in the long term while EUR should weaken as highlighted in the analysis of yesterday. That being said, traders should note that we may see the hot money flowing back into euro as traders / speculators who have enjoyed big gains in uS equities can be more confident and start investing in European equities, which will lead to EUR in the short term. But that hot money flows may end up as a double edged sword, because the output will be equally if not stronger market should begin to lose confidence in the euro area once more

links :.

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – Normalcy Resumes As Rupee Underperforms

USD/INR Technicals – Normalcy Resumes As Rupee Underperforms

Yesterday, it was noted that Indian rupee strengthened against USD more than any other major currency. Similarly, the Sensex was also much better fate than the rest of other Asian counterparts on stock indices. However, surprising rise in risk sentiment today that propelled all major Asian stock indexes higher has failed to have a similar impact on Rupee and Sensex.

Time Table

To be fair, Rupee and Sensex only strengthened but whose degree is a shadow of what we saw yesterday. Both currency and stock index since given up much of their paltry earnings, with Sensex currently trades just 0.18% higher. Rupee was much darker; USD / INR is now trading higher than the closing level yesterday on the order of 61.33.

It is interesting to note that both currencies and Indian stocks were better than the rest one day, only to have both less effective the next. But this is the fickle nature of market sentiment when it is not supported by something fundamentally important. However, it does not really sound like bad news for either stock or buyers Rupee, the share price today is simply a return to the market average to make gains yesterday that neither deserve when they outperformed. This also means that USD / INR traders should not expect prices to shoot much higher from here.

Technicals are suitable, with stochastic readings may be in the overbought region should test the 61.55 price ceiling. As such, the highest probability is that prices remain under 61.55 and above 61.1 floor after the bearish rejection off 61.55 -. Assuming that the fundamentals remain as it is in the short term

Weekly Chart

long-term chart continues to promote weaker rupee in the coming weeks or months. Channel Top goal remains viable as long as price remains above 61.3. Stochastic readings agree with Stoch curve already close to the oversold region and may reverse quickly (maybe some candles which can means 1 or 2 months later). This also corresponds with the overall fundamental story of the Indian economy continues to remain low relative to the road of the US recovery - promoting more USD / INR in the long term. . Not that this is important in the short term but as there is no immediate threat of price break of the consolidation channel seen on the hourly chart

Links:
GBP / USD - 1.6450 resistance Grand Stands
AUD / USD - Trying to hold above 0.88
EUR / USD - settles around 1.3550

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – Rupee Holding On But Risk Long-Term Weakness

USD/INR Technicals – Rupee Holding On But Risk Long-Term Weakness

Indian Rupee weakened today in line with other emerging market currencies, appetite for the risk of Asian market has deteriorated following the same yesterday during the US session. This overall decline is not really surprising that the market was too optimistic in the last days before the first witness Yellen monetary policy in the House of Representatives. While the new Fed chairman is not really optimistic about the market recovery and actually said more than tapered cuts will come, US equities and risk correlated assets remained optimistic. This irrational behavior established a strong possibility of an eventual withdrawal, which brings us to the mild bearishness today which could well be the beginning of a long-term downtrend.

Time Table

Recent economic data also favor a weaker Rupee. rate of consumer price index growth slowed more than analysts expected, reducing the need for RBI to further hike rates. On the other hand, the factory fell and the call for more relaxed monetary policy to promote growth becomes stronger.

However, despite all this, the downward trend in the short term USD / INR remains intact. Prices are not rallied quite sharply from 61.7 to 62.1 above, but we still have to break down the Top Channel or above violate the soft resistance of 62.2. stochastic indicator also shows the first signs of a bear market signal, which promotes movement Bottom Channel and the continuation of the downtrend that has been in the game since February 4 This is a good testimony to the resilience of Rupee , and we could actually see more short-term Rupee buyers that carry traders are more confident now about money previously beaten.

Weekly Chart

This notion is not far - in February, India has experienced outflows of only 316 $ million versus $ 493 million in Thailand, South Korea $ 1.2 billion and Taiwan $ 2.4 billion USD, showing the attractiveness for assets denominated Rupee. Therefore, the short-term direction to Rupee to remain in place (bearish for USD / INR), but a long-term orientation can be a little trickier. Given this relatively strong international demand, RBI will definitely cutting speeds more comfortable in the future is certainly necessary that the potential for growth in India continues to remain low. Therefore, the long-term downside risk for Rupee is high, and that is even before we consider the expected gain of force by USD due to the US in capital inflows coupled with the narrowing of QE purchases .

Techniques suitable as well, with the uptrend that has been in play since August 2011 remaining intact. Although the price bounced off the Top Channel, Channel Bottom does not seem to be a bearish viable option at this time because there is strong support seen at 61.3. Although 61.3 59.0 is broken will be expected to be able to finish the job with stochastic readings most likely to be deeply oversold even before the support level is tested. However, a shift to 61.3 is possible, and traders will have to determine whether the short-term earnings potential short circuit is now sufficient to outweigh the long-term risk of potential weakness in INR.

More Links:
AUD / USD - Reduces Back Down Below 0.0
EUR / USD - Rolls Over Resistance 1.37
GBP / USD - Surges above the resistance Level 1.66

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Back In Black After Strong Employment, RBNZ

AUD/USD – Back In Black After Strong Employment, RBNZ

Australian dollar has strengthened significantly after the latest employment figures were released this morning. The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.0%, but the employment change was extremely encouraging, from 47.3K + M / M versus an expected 15.0K. The figure is even more impressive when you look behind the title number, which is broken down into full-time who won 80.5K. part-time employment decreased by 33.3K but it's not really a huge problem because it is clear that the unemployment rate steady this decline is due to part-time being upgraded to full-time positions. Whichever way you want to cut, it is clear that the figures are extremely positive and a good sign for economic recovery in Australia.

Time Table

timing of employment data was also impeccable. Earlier we had the RBNZ rate decision in which the NZ Central Bank raised the rate by 25 basis points. As such, the market was already leaning toward the hawkish camp, and certainly strong employment figures fueled belief that RBA refrain from rate cut in the near future, facilitating strong bullish reaction which recovered all losses of the week and put AUD / USD in the dark.

There was a bearish downturn during late Asian after noon, but prices remained above 004 resistance turned support, with prices now pushing up towards 0.07 resistance again . Whereas the price actually rose continuously in the few hours after the announcement of employment, it is clear that the bullish momentum is not a flash in the pan. As such, we should be able to expect prices to remain high in the meantime and maybe even break 0,07 seek greater heights so broad risk appetite turn bullish again.

Table Daily

Daily Chart is less optimistic, however. Today's rally is still in the consolidation area saw in February, and the long-term trend is still firmly bearish. Without breaking 0,07 and preferably above 0.915, it is difficult to see current rebound as anything other than corrective. Similarly, although the Stochastic curve is currently pointing higher and crossed the signal line, the threat of a down cycle remains. Add to that the weak fundamentals of the Australian economy and decreasing manufacturing operations seen in China, the outlook for AUD / USD remains weak and bulls will still need to do more to prove that a strong uptrend sustainable is at stake

links:
Gold Technicals - No Bulls stopped 6 high Month achieved
WTI Crude - Inventory huge jump on again Fears SURPLUS
NZD / USD - bullish Breakout. above 0.8525 Post RBNZ rate rise seen

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR – No Rate Hike But Rupee Remain Strong

USD/INR – No Rate Hike But Rupee Remain Strong

Indian rupee remained stable today, with reaction muted following the latest announcement of the policy Central Bank of India. To be honest, the central bank did not surprise the market, opting to keep interest rates at 8% as expected. What is more surprising was the accompanying statement in which the governor Rajan said the central bank will not tighten monetary policy if inflation is on the way to the bank's target.

Time Table

This is actually a relatively accommodating attitude and we should have seen a kind of weakness in INR but did not happen. Prices have bounced from a day low of 59.0 and pushed all the way to 60.05 within hours that followed, but USD / INR quickly fell back again.

From the technical point of view, this suggests that bearish momentum in USD / INR remains strong as we are trading below the rising trend line and the confluence with 60.00 round number. In addition, the latest rally has not even create a new weekly top, even if the fundamental case for USD / INR rally has been stronger than yesterday. They suggest that prices may be able to retest the low current day and the probability of a move towards a low-extension and more bearish on Friday is possible if the bearish sentiment continues to prevail for the remainder of this week.

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart is less optimistic bearish outlook, however, that prices are likely to find support from the Figure 59.0 round which was the support of floor area for consolidation in July 2013. stochastic readings agree that the indicator is at the most oversold level in a year, which promotes the upward movements by outside. This may not necessarily invalidate the bearish momentum, but at least we could see some form of upward withdrawal to the aforementioned consolidation ceiling before a move to the Channel Bottom up can begin.

Basically, nothing has changed. Inflation in India remains high while the economy continues to remain in the pits. The only difference is now that the market is more bullish on emerging markets, resulting in a wider strengthening of emerging market stocks and currencies. On the other hand, the USD strengthening narrative got stronger because of the index Fed President Janet Yellen earlier than expected rate hikes. Given this, we should expect more USD / INR instead of down, and the current bearish momentum may be difficult to maintain in the long term

Links :.
Gold Technicals - Stay on the bearish road Around 1270
AUD / USD - 0.93 Resistance rejected by
GBP / USD - Pound remains firm after dovish Yellen Comments

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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