AUD/USD – NFP Uncertainty Trumps Bearish RBA Statement

AUD/USD – NFP Uncertainty Trumps Bearish RBA Statement

Australian dollar traded lower this morning after the publication of the Monetary Policy Statement RBA. In the RBA has lowered growth forecasts for 2014, citing mining investments due to reduced growth decline. High AUD is also another factor that has been cited with RBA saying that the lower exchange rate probably needed to ensure stable growth.

AUD / USD pushed to a low of 0.9428 after the news, but prices recovered quickly after the release of Chinese trade balance numbers. October Trade Balance came in at $ 31.10B USD, more than twice in September led by stronger than expected exports - 5.6% against 1.7% expected and a reversal from -0.3% in September. With Australia's economy closely linked to China's economic health, a stronger trade balance is always welcomed, lifting AUD / USD dip.

Time Table

However, it should be noted that the import growth rate remained relatively stable at 7.6 %, slightly better than 7.4% expectation. Therefore, the strong recovery that followed gave the overall downward air (due to the RBA orientation and the number of small jobs) seems a bit optimistic especially since it's right on the heels of more bearish ads just an hour before.

This observation can be explained if we consider the technical factors - prices hit bottom support channel that happens to be the confluence with the support level at the close of last Friday, while the readings stochastic were bouncing higher after briefly dipping into the oversold zone. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that Chinese data submitted bullish reaction was exaggerated because of the bullish technical influences. This is confirmed when the rally was covered by the resistance of the channel top, opening a potential move to the bottom of the canal again.

Another possible reason would be the announcement of the nonfarm payroll United States later today. NFP print market expects a weaker than expected which would result in the Fed refraining from tapering QE in the coming months (or so they believe). As such, USD has always been to have a predisposition for reflex weakened, resulting in the strong upward movement in AUD / USD on the Chinese news.

That being said, with the market already prices in a weak USD scenario advance of the actual advert NFP, the risk of the opposite occurrence becomes greater - due to the typical buy rumor sell the new behavior . Therefore, the probability of prices heading Bottom Channel finally (maybe next week, if not post NFP) increases. Even in the AUD / USD most optimistic scenario where NFP came in negative, AUD / USD may still remain bearish as long as price stay below 0.952 at 954 ceiling

Links :.
EUR / USD Technical - Evaluation of the ECB Aftermath
GBP / USD - Resistance remains around 1.61
AUD / USD - Drift continues below 0.95

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – Bearish Below 62.0 But Long Term Follow-Through Suspect

USD/INR Technicals – Bearish Below 62.0 But Long Term Follow-Through Suspect

Time Table

Indian rupee continues to strengthen this morning with USD / INR is currently testing the round figure of 62.0 support. Main reason for this gain can be attributed to the inflow of funds in Indian stocks on the back of improving economic sentiment in India as a result than expected Q3 GDP print much stronger (+ 4.8% Y / Y vs. 4.6% expected and 4.4% previous), which led main stock index Sensex by 1.25% last Friday.

Latest Chinese manufacturing PMI official figures that were released during the weekend still the risk appetite fuel, piling downward pressure USD / INR as Sensex trading continues higher. This additional downward push will go a long way in helping USD / INR bears stand side chain that prices have been stuck in since November 26, and we could see a further downward movement (in small groups) if appetite the risk remains bullish.

Weekly Chart

weekly chart Techniques promotes downward pressure to 61.3 (the consolidation ceiling July). Other downside targets may be possible that the assertion of Top Channel maintenance naturally opens up Bottom Channel ultimate downside target. However, similar to the short-term chart, the Stochastic indicator is close to "oversold", promoting decision-61.3 support and not an immediate move toward the channel bottom (or maybe even 59.0 Floor Consolidation ), which traders should be aware that the -Thanks bearish monitoring may not be as strong as they think and additional confirmation may be required.

also Fundamentals do not support a strong rupee. Although the most recent GDP data is encouraging, it should be noted that it is much lower than the initial estimates of around 6% + that was made earlier this year. Moreover, economists have estimated that India will need a growth Y / Y from 6.5% to support the current labor market, a number less than 6.5% would mean that we could see more unemployment in the future. Therefore, the current euphoria about India's economy is only due to the bar being too small, and increase the risk of a possible upward recoil when Rupee starts to weaken again

links :.
GBP / USD - Almost two-year high around 1.6430
Gold Technicals - Sideshifts With Bumpy week ahead
AUD / USD - finds solid support at 0.91

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – Heading Towards 62.4 As INR Weakens

USD/INR Technicals – Heading Towards 62.4 As INR Weakens

Rupee remains stable against Greenback despite the sudden weakness yesterday in USD in early US session which led AUD / USD, EUR / USD and GBP / USD rising. Even more strange is that USD / INR actually collected higher over time, suggesting that indeed Rupee weakened even more than Greenback, highlighting the downward trend of the currency of India has weakened more than 1% against USD since the beginning of the year.

guilty of the weakness seen in INR comes from the weakening Sensex, which has seen four consecutive days of decline and is likely to chalk a day. With share prices falling, there is very little reason for investors to keep their funds in India since the inflation rate far exceeded deposit rates, resulting in the devaluation of the Rupee.

Time Table

Currently USD / INR is essentially flat, trading in a band between 62.1 to 62.5 . However, without weakening USD, one wonders if USD / INR would be able to go much higher and perhaps even pushed beyond 62.5 previously. Stochastic readings were flat, but a new low has been formed with the curve Stoch crosses the signal line from below, suggesting that the upward trend that began early in the trading session of the US yesterday can be resumed, the price for hitting to the gentle resistance of 62.4 in the near term.

Weekly Chart

the long-term direction agrees with an upward thrust in line with that fundamental with a weak economy India vs strong narrative of the US economy. Moreover, even if we consider that prices have failed in the uplink Channel and should open the downside target in the medium term channel bottom, it should be noted that the prices are in the midst of a rebound of 61.3 support and a new Top channel test is equally if not more likely. This is in line with what we say Stochastic, where the curve of stoch highest peak, say we are now in a bull whose starting point coincides with the rebound of 61.3

Connections:.
EUR / USD Technical - Bears maintain pressure Despite Pullback bullish yesterday
AUD / USD Technical - Indifference Bears improved trade balance, rising share prices
Gold Technicals - Bearish Sentiment Seen soft After Plunge Sudden

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Pushing Lower Towards S/T and L/T Support Levels

NZD/USD Technicals – Pushing Lower Towards S/T and L/T Support Levels

All central banks are equal, but some central banks are more equal than other [

case in point, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said they are increasing rates between 2014 and early 2016, but this did not stimulate NZD / USD higher, although NZD received a further boost last week with a stronger than expected Q3 GDP growth of 1.4%. Instead, the market chose to focus more on the cone of the Fed, sending NZD / USD to a low of 0,815 after the US central bank announced its decision to shave the monthly purchase current QE of $ 10 billion, a "symbolic" gesture by Bernanke as the rest of the members of the FOMC were hawkish calls for cutting $ 20 billion. The Fed noted that further reductions will follow in the future, but Bernanke was much more discreet about when and how the cuts will come, and is much less open compared to Gov. RBNZ Wheeler who has committed a total value of 2 25% of the rate hike. the bias of the market for a stronger USD is so huge right now we suspect NZD / USD may continue lower, though RBNZ rate hike at this time.

Again, the obvious favoritism to market the Fed on the respective policy measures RBNZ is understandable. USD is much more diffused and US rates much watched as NZD and pure difference in the results between the two central banks means that Fed policy will impact the world economy much more than RBNZ. Therefore, we should not be surprised that USD gains against NZD, although the case of a stronger USD is actually lower than NZD.

Time Table

what it means is that we could see continued downward pressure on NZD / USD. Currently we are trading below the 0.8174 support flexible, with decline seen in the last hour unable to overcome the resistance became support. This opens a move towards 0,815, a notion that is supported by Stochastic with its bearish cycle ongoing. However, since the stochastic readings are close to the oversold region, it is unlikely that the price will be able to breach 0,815 and push further especially as the volume of transactions in the last days of 2013 will be low and very unlikely to follow through will be strong. Even if followed through, there is the danger that slide in a low volume environment may not be an accurate reflection of market sentiment, and the risk of a sharp decline when there is good service CV January 2014.

weekly chart

downward pressure in the weekly chart is strong as well, with prices testing the trend line rising. However, similar to the short-term chart, stochastic readings are close to oversold, and it is likely that the price will find support around 0.81, although prices manage to break the rising trendline. Traders are waiting to see the bearish momentum can pick up finish hugely disappointed. This price does not mean will not be able to break 0.81 in the future though. If the market will continue to promote the tapered Fed action on rate hikes RBNZ, we could see the bearish services resume in early 2014, especially if the rebound of 0.81 fail to break au above the downward trend line

links :.
AUD / USD Technical - Mild Support Seen Versus bearish backdrop Strong
EUR / USD Technical - Bearish Pressure Intact But do not expect Slide Sudden
GBP / USD - Pound disdain Sharp US data

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.83 But L/T Follow-through unlikely

NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.83 But L/T Follow-through unlikely
dollar

Kiwi remains firmly on the backfoot today. Prices were already depressed during the US session yesterday led by a concern stimulus hint that led USD higher, with prices remaining close to 0.83 round number support in the early hours of Asia . Strong economic data (ANZ Job Advertisements and Business NZ Performance Manufacturing Index) published (5.00 -5.30am SGT) probably helped 0.83 to take at first, but the level of support finally gave way, causing a strong downward thrust and hitting a low of 0.8261.

timetable

The main reason for this decline appears to be technical pressure, the price has been consistently supported less by descending trend line is at stake for the decline in early US session. The break of 0.83 is further fueled by surprisingly weak data compiled by HSBC Manufacturing PMI, which hit a low 6 months with a 49.6 print. It also suggests that Chinese manufacturing is actually down compared to the expectation of a modest increase to 50.6.

However, it is interesting to see prices bounce before 0.826 support is marked when the price should have been able to significantly lower trade, since bears are on a fresh roll off the break 0 83. This implies that the overall feeling is not as bearish as we think it is. In addition, the price rebound allows a new channel to take, suggesting that technical pressures are still strong enough. Given all this, the probability of prices break the newly formed descending channel becomes less, and a push toward the bottom of the English Channel and down swing around 0.821 is possible should bearish rejection was confirmed.

Graph Daily

This notion is echoed by daily chart, which goes further by suggesting that the ultimate downside target would be 0,815 as the downward thrust of the consolidation ceiling remains intact. Stochastic readings pointing up now, but it is possible that the stoch curve can reverse given the priority in the past which made a 50.0 "resistance."

Basically, it is possible that prices are bearish for now because FX traders are looking to the FOMC rate decision next week and I think the Fed will implement the next cone. There are some problems with this view - firstly, timing candles QE should not really affect USD towards the long term because it is a fact that the stimulus will end one day, and date is likely to be in 2015. Second, the market reaction to economic issues bullish / bearish are not reversed, suggesting that traders are no longer worrying about whether such new persuade / dissuade the Fed to implement the next tapered action. Therefore, traders hope that the outcome of the FOMC next week will lead NZD / USD long-term decline will find themselves disappointed when the dust settled even if the Fed to implement a new cone. In addition, the RBNZ will make its own policy announcement just hours after the announcement of the FOMC who can deny the bearish impact of any sharp action

Links :.
GBP / USD - Looks threatening resistance at 1.66 Again
AUD / USD - Returns to the key 0.88 level
EUR / USD - Continue to stroll around the 1.3550 Key Level

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR / USD was one of the biggest winners during the hours of Asia yesterday, but all the nothingness to turn bullish bravado as prices traded lower later in the European session and US, staying in a narrow band between 1.3695 and 1.3710. To be fair, EUR / USD was not the only currency pair where the bulls have failed; other conventional risk currency pairs GBP / USD, AUD / USD and NZD / USD traded all down as well, and the extent of their losses were much larger - 3 currency pairs traded below the opening levels. Moreover, even if EUR / USD gains sleek, prices are not able to stay in the black, suggesting that EUR / USD bulls may just be that much stronger than the rest of short-term currency .

timetable

Another good bullish factor goes for EUR / USD for now is that prices have stayed most time above 1.37. Today we have seen prices pushed below 1.37, but prices have since recovered. As such, even though technicals suggest that a push towards 1,368 is possible after the failure to break 1.3715 and bearish break of the trend line rising prices have a good chance of staying afloat around 1 , 37 mark, opening the possibility of a push 1.3715 once more.

Daily chart

Daily Chart is less optimistic, as the inability to move beyond 1.37 suggests conclusively that a top may be in place, which opens a lower back movement with an ultimate downside target below 1348 that the downward trend that began in late December 2013 will be back in the game. stochastic readings agree with Stoch curve already deeply overbought. In addition, it should be noted that there is a divergence between prices and Stoch peaks, suggesting that the current bullish recovery from early February may be too aggressive, increasing the likelihood of a downturn.

Looking at the calendar of economic news, there is no major European economic news that could fuel further gains in EUR / USD. As such, the only reason why EUR / USD may possibly go higher going forward would be inherent bullishness and technical pressures. While EUR / USD has done better than other currencies, it should be noted that yesterday was a "risk on" day globally which saw global equity indices from Asia and Europe climbing any higher (Bank holiday in the US). Therefore, failure to see gains in risk currencies as a block is disconcerting, and we can conclude that there is a bearish sentiment most important work (possibly related to the strength of the dollar), which can still drag EUR / USD lower.

Links:
GBP / USD - slight losses inflation indicators Markets Eye UK
USD / CAD - Holidays rangebound trade
USD / JPY - gains Japanese GDP dollar Dips

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR / USD was one of the biggest winners during the hours of Asia yesterday, but all the nothingness to turn bullish bravado as prices traded lower later in the European session and US, staying in a narrow band between 1.3695 and 1.3710. To be fair, EUR / USD was not the only currency pair where the bulls have failed; other conventional risk currency pairs GBP / USD, AUD / USD and NZD / USD traded all down as well, and the extent of their losses were much larger - 3 currency pairs traded below the opening levels. Moreover, even if EUR / USD gains sleek, prices are not able to stay in the black, suggesting that EUR / USD bulls may just be that much stronger than the rest of short-term currency .

timetable

Another good bullish factor goes for EUR / USD for now is that prices have stayed most time above 1.37. Today we have seen prices pushed below 1.37, but prices have since recovered. As such, even though technicals suggest that a push towards 1,368 is possible after the failure to break 1.3715 and bearish break of the trend line rising prices have a good chance of staying afloat around 1 , 37 mark, opening the possibility of a push 1.3715 once more.

Daily chart

Daily Chart is less optimistic, as the inability to move beyond 1.37 suggests conclusively that a top may be in place, which opens a lower back movement with an ultimate downside target below 1348 that the downward trend that began in late December 2013 will be back in the game. stochastic readings agree with Stoch curve already deeply overbought. In addition, it should be noted that there is a divergence between prices and Stoch peaks, suggesting that the current bullish recovery from early February may be too aggressive, increasing the likelihood of a downturn.

Looking at the calendar of economic news, there is no major European economic news that could fuel further gains in EUR / USD. As such, the only reason why EUR / USD may possibly go higher going forward would be inherent bullishness and technical pressures. While EUR / USD has done better than other currencies, it should be noted that yesterday was a "risk on" day globally which saw global equity indices from Asia and Europe climbing any higher (Bank holiday in the US). Therefore, failure to see gains in risk currencies as a block is disconcerting, and we can conclude that there is a bearish sentiment most important work (possibly related to the strength of the dollar), which can still drag EUR / USD lower.

Links:
GBP / USD - slight losses inflation indicators Markets Eye UK
USD / CAD - Holidays rangebound trade
USD / JPY - gains Japanese GDP dollar Dips

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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