USD / JPY has not been directionless since mid April, but the price was moving with wild swings above and below the axle ~ 98.0. This is a reflection of market sentiment which is clearly confused. On the one hand, more and more investors / speculators start losing / have lost confidence in the ability of BOJ and Abenomic artificially weaken Yen more - resulting in gains capped in USD / JPY. Moreover, the Japanese economic fundamentals are brighter than before to research suggesting that abenomics BOJ stimulus and earn at least some traction. But again, the overall Japanese economy remains weak, and there are signs that the increase in the CPI growth rate has not really translated into economic productivity, and therefore there are more who are beginning to recover questioning the overall strategy of an inflation target of 2%.
as a result of this confusion continued, fluctuations in the volatility of USD / JPY has declined steadily. 4 weeks Average True Range decreased from a peak of ~ 400 pips aware ~ 50 pips, the same levels before the prodigious rally late 2012. Safe to say, the rally seems to have effectively ended. Right now, the market is revaluation phase, and waiting for signals from BOJ / Prime Minister Abe.
In this regard, the Bank of Japan was frustrating to say the least. Latest Statement on Monetary Policy on October 31 was a simple case two sentences. There was no mention of the economy, no mention of recent economic events and their impact on Japan, or even if the current level of Yen and interest rates support the inflation target of 2%. They are not helpful and does not provide guidance before the market is looking for now. that meeting minutes were published earlier today, which provided a little more insight than the declaration. But management still ahead is lacking. There was usually mentions that the economy is "moderate recovery", and the risk of an uncertain US monetary policy has been raised, but there was nothing about what the possible answers BOJ would. As such, the market is still not wiser, and this lack of Yen volatility will most likely drag on.
Time Table
from the point of purely technical view, prices are currently being bearish bias negotiation within a soft descending channel. This is in line with the bearish stochastics cycle signal that is currently in. However, a temporary bullish decline is possible that the price has labeled Bottom Canal opens a Top channel pass. There is also the priority for Stoch curve to bounce higher from the level of 60.0, which increases the probability of an upward thrust.
Weekly Chart
weekly chart shows prices faced resistance of the ascending trend line, but stochastic readings are optimistic in its own "consolidation band." However, price volatility down, the likelihood of price breaking the trend line upward decreases, thus a downward movement towards the axle 98.0 mentioned earlier is favored. stochastic readings sort of agreement with "medium" level around 40.0 counteract potentially strong bearish momentum, which reduces the likelihood of prices going too far below the axle 98.0
:. links
AUD / USD - 0.95 Key Resistance Level now offers
EUR / USD - tries to keep 1 35
GBP / USD - surges strongly support the 1.59
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