EURUSD – Break Lower Looking Increasingly Likely

EURUSD – Break Lower Looking Increasingly Likely

The recent trading range EURUSD can be almost an escape should clarify whether what we see is just a part of a consolidation continuation of the bearish trend, or temporary dips in the pair before a correction probably late.

pair has been declining for about a year now and in that time, there was almost no corrections, just brief periods of consolidation followed by other moves downward.

price action during the last month was the closest we saw a correction and even that hasn 't been very important. Instead, he traded in a range of 1.0460 to 1.1050. The descending channel intersected the range now and was respected during the rally last week, so we could be about to enter the next phase of this pair.

Looking at the tables at the moment, I have a slight bearish bias for some reasons. First, the slightly lower highs and higher lows through this period suggests this consolidation period formed a flag suggesting a continuation of the downtrend.

The resistance continues as the top of the chain has offered since joining the trading range also supports this, as well as suggesting that the lower break can coming soon. We also continue to negotiate below the SMA 50 days that acted as resistance on numerous occasions over the last 12 months.

If we see a break above the channel and 50-day SMA, it would strongly suggest that we have indeed hit bottom and I would myself bracing for a larger upward correction. Until then, I will adhere to the age-old adage, the trend is your friend.

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GBPUSD – Bullish Breakout From Flag

GBPUSD – Bullish Breakout From Flag

The breakout of the flag stressed yesterday (GBPUSD - Breakout Almost after consolidation) occurred and you expect continuation of this scheme bullish, he came to the upside.

rally after the escape was very strong, lose no time in breaking beyond the last Thursday of vertices in a new uptrend (higher high after completed lower Friday). Another potential sticking point would be from 1.55 to 50% retracement of the move from 14 May to January high low in June -. But the pair, despite the slowdown seems to have broken that both

With these broken levels, I think we could see the simple moving average 233-day retested following the escape attempt failed may 14

the pair may face resistance along the way around 1.5570 to 1.56. - 61.8 fib level and previous support and resistance - but I'm not convinced that they will hold. I'll be looking for signs of that in the form of differences and flipping game ups in price action

If we see a correction, pair may find support around 1.5450. -1.55 That they are supporting and previous resistance levels.

net position

OANDA customer followed the price during the last month or two steps fairly well and once they have become net long during the last escape. They were slightly less optimistic today but which may suggest they do not believe the rally has legs.

* The tools above and many others can be found in OANDA Forex Labs.

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AUD/USD – Continues to Rely Upon Support Level at 0.76

AUD/USD – Continues to Rely Upon Support Level at 0.76

AUD / USD - Friday, July 3, 2015

In past 24 hours AUD / USD has again tested the key support level at 0.76 and had some solid support. In recent days, the Australian dollar began to feel some selling pressure from the level of 0.77 his eyes are firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76. To close last week the AUD / USD fell sharply lower below 0.77 but found strong support for long-term support level at 0.76. This level has provided strong support throughout most of this year and was called again last week again. Throughout last week the AUD / USD eased lower and was enjoying the 0.77 level key support before selling. A few weeks ago, he made a greater leap of below 0.77 until the last three weeks, but he ran right to resistance at 0.7850 key, which played this role several times this year. A few weeks ago, he also spent most of his time fairly stable operations around the 0.7750 level while enjoying a strong support 0.77.

During the last month, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to put selling pressure on the AUD / USD. During this same period, it received strong support from the rock the long term support level at 0.76 which allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion. Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fell sharply four-month high above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD was in a solid medium term trend upward after crossing the 0.7850 key level and reaches four month high above 0.8150.

For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels. The key level remains now 0.76 and it will be interesting to see how the support at this level can contain and stop the trend of sharp decline in the AUD / USD has experienced in recent weeks. The 4 hour chart below shows how constant the recent decline was, but also how significant the level of 0.76 to be able to temporarily halt the decline.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / 2 USD July at 23:45 GMT 0.7638 H: L 0.7640: 0.7630

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.70	-	-	0.7850	0.8150	-

During the first hours of the Asian session on Friday, the dollar Australia is the return level easing to 0.76 0.77 after surging so far in the last two days. Current range :. trading just below 0.7650

Other levels in both directions

• The following :. 0.70

• Above :. 0.7850 and 0.8150

Open Ratios position OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the left percentage (blue) shows long positions, the percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD fell over 60 % as the AUD / USD eased back towards the 0.76 level .. the trader sentiment is in favor of long positions

economic Releases

• AU 1:30 retail sales (May)
• 08 .: 00 EU composite PMI (June)
• 8:00 EU PMI services (June)
• UK CIPS 8:30 / Markit PMI services (June)
• 9:00 retailing EU (May)

* All GMT release time

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Consolidating in Narrow Range Around 0.74

AUD/USD – Consolidating in Narrow Range Around 0.74

AUD / USD - Thursday, July 23, 2015

The Australian dollar sharply in the past month that led to a new six-year low below 0.7350 earlier this week. For the best part of two weeks, the AUD / USD has traded in a narrow range between 0.74 and 0.75 with the former providing reasonable support and the latter providing a strong resistance during this time. He was counting on the support of 0.74 and test that level but it was broken and the AUD / USD has been consolidating around the 0.74 level for the past week. Just a few weeks the Australian dollar began to feel some selling pressure from the level of 0.77 and had his eyes firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76.

In the first half of June the Australian dollar jumped more than 0.77 lower to a three-week high, but he ran right to resistance at 0.7850 key, which played this role more time this year. All this time, he also spent most of his time fairly stable operations around the 0.7750 level while enjoying a strong support 0.77. Over the past two months, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to exert downward pressure on selling the AUD / USD. During this same period, it benefited from rock solid support from the level of support in the long term to 0.76 that allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion.

Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fall sharply to a four months above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD has been in a long-term trend solid medium to having broken through the 0.7850 key level and reached four months of high above 0.8150. For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / USD July 23 at 0:05 UTC 0.7379 H: 0.7395 L : 0.7362

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7350	-	-	0.7500	0.7850	0.8150

During the first hours of the Asian session on Thursday, the dollar Australian is trying to stay in contact with the 0.74 level after spending the last days of consolidating and trading around that level. Current range :. right trading around 0.7375

Other levels in both directions

• Below: 0.7350

• Above :. 0.7500, 0.7850 and 0.8150

[ouvrirRatiosdeposition OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the percentage left (blue) shows long positions ;. percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD fell below 60 % as the AUD / USD has eased following a six-year low near 0.7350. The trader sentiment is in favor of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 8:30 UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (23rd to 28th) (June)
• 8:30 UK Retail Sales (June)
• 10:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades (23rd to 27th) (July)
• 24:30 CA retail sales (May)
• 12 : 30 US initial claims (18/07/2015)
• 2:00 p.m. flash EU consumer Sentiment (July)
• 2:00 p.m. US Leading Indicator (June)

* All times are GMT release of

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EURUSD – Seven Week High Eyed on Dollar Weakness

EURUSD – Seven Week High Eyed on Dollar Weakness

The euro rallies against the dollar again on Thursday after a strong move up in Wednesday on the back of what was. perceived as FOMC minutes standstill

The move came as the pair retested the descending trend line - 1 July peaks - that erupted over the past week. Although it has temporarily breached this level and close slightly below the daily chart, the highest rebound was both immediate and strong resulting in a bullish engulfing.

He also came off the 50 fib level - hollow 5 August to 12 senior Aug -. simple moving average and 233-period on the 4 hour chart

The next major test for the pair will be 1.1214 - last week the highest - around the upper end of the trading range that it has traded in since the beginning of July.

pair has found initial resistance at the moment around 1.1185, which provided similar resistance on 13 and 14 August, but I'm not convinced at this stage that it will take.

If we see a break above the highs of last week, it would be a bullish signal and could cause a move back towards a key area of ​​resistance between 1.1385 and 1.1525.

has been a key area of ​​strength on many occasions this year. On this occasion, the descending trend line from May 8, 2014 highs could also provide additional resistance and the 233 days SMA.

It will be interesting to see how the pair responds if the peaks of last week and are not broken down to 1.1017 this week will be crucial for this. If the pair is higher low would be a bullish signal while a break and daily close below would be bearish because it means the neckline of a double top has been broken.

The tools above and others can be found in OANDA Forex Labs.

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EURUSD – Shooting Star May Signal Further Losses

EURUSD – Shooting Star May Signal Further Losses

After consolidating between 1.10 and 1.11 for a couple of days earlier this week, following the initial liquidation on the back of easing ECB warning, the euro fell against the dollar again on Wednesday that the Federal reserve gave a more hawkish than expected statement.

After falling to 1.09 yesterday, the pair ran into the support of the ascending trend line - 13 March low - and has since stabilized again. However, after a brief period of consolidation and some GDP data which was roughly in line with expectations, the pair may be about to fall again.

The last finished candle on the 4 hour chart is a shooting star that is usually quite bearish. However, the pair has been rallying since formed candle that could tell us how much he is bearish.

If the pair rallies and took the top of the shooting star, he suggested that the market is not bearish now that the candle suggests. At this point, I will continue to look for signs that the pair is on the backhand return down.

If on the other hand the pair fails at or just below the top, it suggests that we may see another move lower. A move below the low current candle would be further support this.

If we see that, then we could see a challenge of yesterday's low, a break that could prompt a return to the May and July lows around 1.08, where the pair might find strong support.

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EURJPY – Does Further Yen Weakness Lie Ahead?

EURJPY – Does Further Yen Weakness Lie Ahead?

We saw a decent rally in the yen today on the back of reports that the Japanese fiscal spending package will a lot? smaller than thought - rather than ¥ 00000000000 ¥ 000000000000 -. question both the effectiveness of any monetary stimulus might come, and how it will be

rally in the yen sent the euro back to 114.45 against the Japanese currency, where it faces a confluence of support levels, including a front region of the resistance from which the pair was released its lowest in June before a little higher. He also noted about 50% retracement of the move down from 6 July to 20 July peaks.

Yen Rise supported by Guesstimates

Finally, the pair may also be finding support from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour chart after out above, there are two weeks. If this expectation, it could be considered a confirmation of the initial break and a bullish continuation signal of the pair after a brief correction.

From there, we could see a return movement towards the heights of this month, or more, with initial resistance being potentially found around 115.50, while 116 to 116.50 recently also has a key level of support and resistance.

a break here, on the other hand would obviously suggest otherwise and while the pair could find further support around 113.75, we could see further declines in the days and weeks ahead. Confirmation of this would come from a rupture of the delay line through the cloud bottom

OANDA MP -. Yen rises on Doubts Stimulus (video)

At this point, we could see a return to the low of June and July, with the pair having already found support and resistance between 113 and 113.30.

history OANDA tool positions shows that the position of net customer in this pair followed the price very well throughout July and now we see the net short position is reduced to this key support level . This could be considered a bullish signal course, the position remains net short and there is no guarantee that it will continue to monitor the prices as well.

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EURJPY – Does Further Yen Weakness Lie Ahead?

EURJPY – Does Further Yen Weakness Lie Ahead?

We saw a decent rally in the yen today on the back of reports that the Japanese fiscal spending package will a lot? smaller than thought - rather than ¥ 00000000000 ¥ 000000000000 -. question both the effectiveness of any monetary stimulus might come, and how it will be

rally in the yen sent the euro back to 114.45 against the Japanese currency, where it faces a confluence of support levels, including a front region of the resistance from which the pair was released its lowest in June before a little higher. He also noted about 50% retracement of the move down from 6 July to 20 July peaks.

Yen Rise supported by Guesstimates

Finally, the pair may also be finding support from the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud on the 4 hour chart after out above, there are two weeks. If this expectation, it could be considered a confirmation of the initial break and a bullish continuation signal of the pair after a brief correction.

From there, we could see a return movement towards the heights of this month, or more, with initial resistance being potentially found around 115.50, while 116 to 116.50 recently also has a key level of support and resistance.

a break here, on the other hand would obviously suggest otherwise and while the pair could find further support around 113.75, we could see further declines in the days and weeks ahead. Confirmation of this would come from a rupture of the delay line through the cloud bottom

OANDA MP -. Yen rises on Doubts Stimulus (video)

At this point, we could see a return to the low of June and July, with the pair having already found support and resistance between 113 and 113.30.

history OANDA tool positions shows that the position of net customer in this pair followed the price very well throughout July and now we see the net short position is reduced to this key support level . This could be considered a bullish signal course, the position remains net short and there is no guarantee that it will continue to monitor the prices as well.

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OANDA MP – FX Charting Analysis (Video)

OANDA MP – FX Charting Analysis (Video)

In updating FX Charting Analysis today, senior market analyst Craig Erlam gives his analysis on the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP, AUDUSD, USDCAD, EURJPY and GBPJPY.

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Kenny

Kenny

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USD/INR Technicals – Bungling Over The 62.5 Level

USD/INR Technicals – Bungling Over The 62.5 Level

Time Table

Rupee continued weakness, with USD / INR continuing to trade higher in the ascending channel that started last Friday night. The slight rally can be attributed to the slight increase in the strength of USD coupled with the inherent weakness of the rupee which resulted from the recent rate hike enigmatic RBI.

From the technical point of view, the upward channel has deleted the key resistance 62.50. This increases the likelihood of price rebound higher from the level mentioned above, with a goal of up to Top Channel. In theory, we might be able to see some upward acceleration that could even break up and Canal Top Swing same yesterday. However, the price action has been rather silent since last Friday, and we did not observe a semblance of strong upward thrust from, but little movement of minutes. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine the price being able to do this time, although the bullish break above 62.5 was "confirmed".

Looking Fundamentals, USD will continue to strengthen in the coming months or perhaps years that the Fed should shrink and eventually ends QE. On the other hand, rupee will remain under pressure due to the huge current account deficit the government is running, coupled with low inflation and lowering of growth forecasts. Therefore, long-term USD / INR uptrend is not unreasonable.

That being said, it is interesting to see that the USD / INR bulls remaining silent despite USD strengthening past two days which saw AUD / USD and GBP / USD gains given their entire post FOMC. Perhaps the rise in rates implemented by RBI on Friday is to have a slight impact, keeping the bulls mainly in the control and prevention of a rout Rupee. However, it is likely that RBI will implement accommodative measures that may affect the economy, and as the surprise tightening measures failed to prevent USD / INR to climb completely all forms of accommodative policy can cause a reaction USD bullish extreme /INR.

links:
GBP / USD - continues to count on the support at 1.60
AUD / USD - One week Low drifts below 0.94
EUR / USD - continues to drift slowly lower below 1.35

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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GBP/USD Technicals – BOE Event May Spark Next Bullish Run

GBP/USD Technicals – BOE Event May Spark Next Bullish Run

Time Table

Cable has recovered significantly since Monday, when prices almost labeled key support 1.59. By trading near 1.61, the immediate risks of a Double Top pattern on daily chart views is reduced, and opens a potential move to 1,625 for a Triple Top pattern or even a potential bullish scenario extension.

However, short-term bias is mixed. Prices remain above 07 support, but we are also trading below the rise Top Channel, suggesting that the pace of the upward momentum was taking a lower notch. Stochastic readings is unclear as well, with the highest score of readings, but the face of "resistance" around the level of 60.0. Therefore, it is an understatement when we say that the direction of prices is uncertain, and it is the game everyone to take.

Bank of England rate decision coming in 2 hours time can be the game changer, however. The Monetary Policy Committee voting unanimously to keep interest rates and the asset purchase program as it is the last time round, it is highly unlikely that five voting members to the MPC swing opposite side and form a favorable outcome to the status quo today. As such, it is likely that the GBP / USD may enjoy a small pop after the event decision on rates. In general, the probability of an immediate withdrawal would be higher than the market price would be fully in the results sooner. However, with prices that need directional signals at this time, the small upward movement may actually cause further bullish waterfall, and the outbreak of the next upside momentum if we stay above 1.612 after the event.

If prices do not grow until 1612 but trading lower back again, the immediate short term bias is bearish, but that does not necessarily mean that a new downtrend will emerge especially if prices remain above 1.607. This can be interpreted as prices returning to the "neutral" position again, and traders may need to wait for other indications (eg NFP Friday) for steering

Links :.
EUR / USD Technicals - Bearish Bias Minor Before Bullish ECB Event
WTI Crude - slightly higher but S / T downward pressure remains now
USD / INR Technicals - bullish Breakout on short and long term charts

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Bears Maintain Pressure Despite Bullish Pullback Yesterday

EUR/USD Technicals – Bears Maintain Pressure Despite Bullish Pullback Yesterday

EUR / USD managed to rally yesterday despite weaker than expected German Service PMI and the consumer price index. Prices were down slightly decline in early US session, but it has nothing to do with the 2 economic data mentioned above, and appears to be a mild bearish decline after 1.36 was broken. The following affirmation 1.36 resistance turned support sent prices higher again, allowing the price to reach the next resistance level of 1.3645. This thrust is further fueled by weaker than expected ISM manufacturing composite number not that weakened USD on light speculative game that the new Fed President Janet Yellen (which incidentally would be passed by the Senate later) can easily go the lark tapering QE. However, 1.3645 held despite several attempts to break it, keeping intact bearish overall bias and EUR / USD has been trading lower since US session ended.

Time Table

With all things considered, it is difficult to see the rally yesterday as anything a / T correction movement S. first, prices rose below and hit a low near 1,357 before the sudden withdrawal happened. This has already been planned from a technical point of view the price was bearish but a decline was still on the books Whereas the prices have not had a significant bullish response since the beginning of the new year. In addition, with a potential Triple Top pattern formation on the daily chart, a new test of 1363 support turned resistance (seen in the daily chart) is actually welcomed by the bear because it would bear to size up the extent of bulls and help confirm the Triple Top.

Moving forward in the short term, the stochastic indicator says the overall S / T with the Stochastic bearish bias curve in the middle of a down cycle with Stoch levels already below the recent trough intermediate seen during the fall pullback. This suggests that the bearish conviction is stronger than ever and promotes continuous thrust downward along the descending trend line.

Table Daily

Speaking of Triple Top model, should we close the candle today below 1363 accompanied by a bearish candle, the next day the Triple Top pattern is confirmed. However, stochastic readings are firmly in the oversold region and there is a chance that prices may remain between 1.353 and 1.363 (consolidation between late November and early December) for a long period of time before the next bearish step begins expansion . This will allow the bears to rest after the steep slide down from 1.38 and stochastic readings will most likely push up and primed for the next down cycle

Links :.
GBP / USD - active Pound as the UK, US services PMIs Dip
central bankers Kick Start an important week
AUD / USD - Little Movement to start the week

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/JPY – Rally Continues Despite BOJ Non-Decision

USD/JPY – Rally Continues Despite BOJ Non-Decision

Time Table

USD / JPY was already strongly bullish this morning, following the release of the FOMC minutes which led USD higher. However, the bulls were capped below 100.50 for most of the Asian morning due to traders taking profit ahead of BOJ rate decision. As a side note, this decision is strange that the downside risk for the BOJ event is low - BOJ is not expected to announce a new stimulus this time the bet is short on December rate decision, and it is almost impossible that BOJ hawkish statements. Therefore, the upside risks are higher than any surprise status quo would have sent USD / JPY much higher, making the profit announcement soon take a little pre particular.

However, in doing so, traders USD / JPY are cautious, and that is actually good news because it would mean that the announcement of the subsequent rally post BOJ would have less chance of a catchy withdrawal . This is true even if the stochastic readings are very overbought, as 100.50 escape inspired a strong upward technical pressure above the hope that BOJ will reveal something big in December coupled with US Fed potentially narrowing early 2014, if not in December.

Daily chart

weekly picture is less optimistic, however. Price may still face strong resistance all the way to 101.5, particularly as stochastic readings are highly overbought. Prizes must clear in order to increase the bullish conviction to high of 103.7 in 2013.

However, from another perspective, the bulls should be happy that the upward road here is not easy, because only real strong (read: non-speculative) bullish conviction / pulse will be able to break this resistance band, which means that the fundamental reason for the rally must be clear and obvious - for example, BOJ announced a prodigious stimulus plan in December. With this break, the chances of high followed by the bullish bias will be high, and the bulls will be rewarded for their patience.

Things are not so simple for many bears. If BOJ disappoints, prices will certainly dive, but the decline following will depend on whether the market is still full of hope for more stimulus in the future. Hence traders have to wait and discern the sense of price action, and automatically assuming that the price will hit at the rising trend line below may not be accurate

links :.
Gold Technicals - Stable Here 1250 Post FOMC Minutes
US S & P 500 - Heat cone Feeling stocks but L / T Momentum bullish Intact
US10Y - Staying above 126.5 for now mintues post FOMC

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/JPY – Rally Continues Despite BOJ Non-Decision

USD/JPY – Rally Continues Despite BOJ Non-Decision

Time Table

USD / JPY was already strongly bullish this morning, following the release of the FOMC minutes which led USD higher. However, the bulls were capped below 100.50 for most of the Asian morning due to traders taking profit ahead of BOJ rate decision. As a side note, this decision is strange that the downside risk for the BOJ event is low - BOJ is not expected to announce a new stimulus this time the bet is short on December rate decision, and it is almost impossible that BOJ hawkish statements. Therefore, the upside risks are higher than any surprise status quo would have sent USD / JPY much higher, making the profit announcement soon take a little pre particular.

However, in doing so, traders USD / JPY are cautious, and that is actually good news because it would mean that the announcement of the subsequent rally post BOJ would have less chance of a catchy withdrawal . This is true even if the stochastic readings are very overbought, as 100.50 escape inspired a strong upward technical pressure above the hope that BOJ will reveal something big in December coupled with US Fed potentially narrowing early 2014, if not in December.

Daily chart

weekly picture is less optimistic, however. Price may still face strong resistance all the way to 101.5, particularly as stochastic readings are highly overbought. Prizes must clear in order to increase the bullish conviction to high of 103.7 in 2013.

However, from another perspective, the bulls should be happy that the upward road here is not easy, because only real strong (read: non-speculative) bullish conviction / pulse will be able to break this resistance band, which means that the fundamental reason for the rally must be clear and obvious - for example, BOJ announced a prodigious stimulus plan in December. With this break, the chances of high followed by the bullish bias will be high, and the bulls will be rewarded for their patience.

Things are not so simple for many bears. If BOJ disappoints, prices will certainly dive, but the decline following will depend on whether the market is still full of hope for more stimulus in the future. Hence traders have to wait and discern the sense of price action, and automatically assuming that the price will hit at the rising trend line below may not be accurate

links :.
Gold Technicals - Stable Here 1250 Post FOMC Minutes
US S & P 500 - Heat cone Feeling stocks but L / T Momentum bullish Intact
US10Y - Staying above 126.5 for now mintues post FOMC

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/JPY – Pullback Seen Post BOJ Rally

USD/JPY – Pullback Seen Post BOJ Rally

No surprises last policy announcement from the Bank of Japan. Governor Kuroda said the central bank will maintain current stimulus plan, repeat all the bullish rhetoric that has been said before appointed / elected in the hot seat back at the end of 2012. However, this non-event successfully dispel some rumors about BOJ potentially lowering the inflation target one year after the start of the current stimulus over concerns that the initial target may be too high and unrealistic. With central bankers from the record to say that the current target and accommodative monetary policy is still on track, speculators and investors interpreted as a sign that the Bank of Japan is ready to implement more stimulus to reach the 2% target by choice or by force, resulting from the renewed confidence that yen weakness will continue.

timetable

However, it should be noted that Kuroda did not promise that BOJ will implement any plan additional stimulus anytime soon. The only thing that was Kuroda said that the central bank will "policy adjustments" as needed, and saying they aim to reach the target of 2% price as soon as possible. In addition, Kuroda said that the downside risks to the Japanese economy is in decline while growth will exceed potential after July this year. Given all this, the governor said that BOJ to continue current policy assuming no other downside risks appear on the road.

This seems reasonable, but it should be noted that it does nothing to address market concerns. It is clear that the market is unstable because they think the so-called economic growth / recovery was not up to par. With Kuroda also remains optimistic as before, it is clear he does not share the same market sentiment. Therefore, it will be strange to say the least that Kuroda has eased market concerns when it does not even recognize that there is a problem. This does not mean that there is indeed a problem, and the market could be proved too paranoid. But the fact is that the market has actually sent USD / JPY after the announcement of the Bank of Japan, although their fears should theoretically remain stationary.

Therefore, it is no surprise to see USD / JPY is pulling lower despite not being able to test high yesterday, or even remain above 104.5 for a considerable period of time. The BOJ announced after rally is unjustified and therefore gains a greater probability of being compared.

From the technical point of view, the price has traded back in last Friday's consolidation area. This suggests that the break happened after BOJ has been invalidated, and the immediate bearish target of 104.2 is possible, and can even go as low as 104.0 should the bearish momentum that started on January 16 remains Thurs stochastic readings agree with the formation of a new high, adding bearish technical pressure.

Table Daily

daily chart shows that the long upward trend in the long term is currently under threat, with prices steadily declining since the peak made January 1 Whereas BOJ did nothing to truly ensure the market today, the probability of a current well-being factor dissipation and USD / JPY trading down more high. From the technical point of view, if broken is 104.0, 103.0 is the next downside target, and should the level mentioned above is broken and we could see a downward acceleration that bullish momentum will be invalidated.

More Links:
GBP / USD - Breaks through resistance at 1.6450
AUD / USD - Surges to a week high near 0.8870
EUR / USD - crawls back above 1.3550 key level

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Bearish Pressure Intact But Don’t Expect Sudden Slide

EUR/USD Technicals – Bearish Pressure Intact But Don’t Expect Sudden Slide

Time Table

USD is to not let the holiday break affecting his stride. The greenback strengthened during the Boxing Day trading began, pushing against all major currencies, including EUR, which cast a little less than 20 pips in open troughs. If we ignore the empty candle on the chart, the decline this morning appears to be a further decline from the high of December 23 The fact that high swing today has not been able to match the previous swing high December 24th saw during US session suggest that previous bearish momentum remains in play, a notion that is supported by stochastic readings are not affected by the oversold region.

However, traders should also note that prices have failed to knock down swing said US session on December 24, and prices have been spinning over 1,367 flexible support. In addition, the line Stoch / Signal converge and can even reverse soon. Therefore, traders should not automatically assume that prices will grow next lower especially since the volume of transactions in the coming days will be low. A stronger bearish signal is breaking 1366 which will open a possible move towards 1.3625 but even then, traders should be aware that any directional follow through this week will be low during this period.

Daily Graphic

price action on the daily chart remains bearish as long as it remains below 1.37 and light can even keep bearish bias above 1.37 if the rising trend line remains intact. However, the current bearish momentum may find support from 1.36 to 1.3625 as stochastic readings are close to the oversold region, corresponding to the table in the short term is to show us.

Nevertheless, do not expect short-term rebound to last given the USD is expected to strengthen in 2014, while EUR may weaken the ECB remains very accommodative and explicitly stated that the rate of negative interest are possible and a viable option if necessary. All this can be just bravado of the ECB which can not be called, but given that the EUR / USD has been rallying over the past month, it is clear that the market has not really priced in a scenario ECB accommodating, giving us a lot of potential downside ECB should ease again in 2014 (ie liquidity injection style ala LTRO or via interest rate cuts). Moreover, from the point of view of pure economic power, the United States are head and shoulders better than the euro area, which in itself should promote a lower EUR / USD move forward before considering even actions of the Central Bank.

Links:
GBP / USD - Pound disdain Sharp US data
USD / CAD - Loonie Holds Firm Despite Sharp numbers US
AUD / USD - rangebound As Markets Eye Key US release

This article is only for general information purposes . It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Trading Above 1.37 On S/T Bullish Pressure

EUR/USD Technicals – Trading Above 1.37 On S/T Bullish Pressure

Early trading on Monday continued the bullish uptrend that has been in the game since February 13 while prices have pushed from Friday's close of 1.36922 above 1.37 almost immediately after market opening. This uptrend is strong sign also contributed by large "risk on" sentiment during Asian hours because of a global funding figure dossier published by the People's Bank of China, which amounted to 2.58 billion yuan ($ 425 billion) - suggesting that Chinese banks continue to be risk-taking and the threat of a liquidity crisis in China is a little lower

timetable .

Certainly EUR / USD was not the most optimistic of all (GBP / USD won the title), but this pair remains one of the biggest winners this morning, highlighting the bullish sentiment strong around the currency pair at the moment. this put the bulls in a good position to retest the 1.3715 soft resistance that had kept Friday's gains. with additional support may come from the upward trend line, the probability of a 1.3715 retest and possible break becomes higher. Stochastic gradient on the curve can be reduced, but the readings continue to point higher. With some space left before hitting overbought, we should be able to see more optimistic earnings before an S / T bearish pullback occurs.

Table Daily

Daily Chart is less optimistic. Although prices have reached the round number of 1.37, we still are trading below the previous swing high of 1,374. In addition, stochastic readings are already in the overbought region, suggesting that the current bullish momentum may begin to decline. As such, the potential for a "fakeout" above 1.37 can not be ignored, and traders will further confirmation before a push towards 1.3815 is considered likely.

Nevertheless, there is a good bullish support. current rally of 13 February (12 February the US session) took place after the break of 1.3625 to 1.363 resistance. This break also coincides with a Top Channel descent rebound, confirming the break of the channel seen on February 11 As such, we are already riding on a bullish wave escape and so do not take too much effort to break 1.37 since the whole market is bullish on the forehead right now.

Fundamentals are mixed well. Market sentiment is certainly optimistic, but we wonder how long it would last. Although Chinese banks continue to lend more money, the risk of bad debts continued to rise. As it is currently, bad loans ratios in China has already reached a high of 3 years, and pumping more money into the system trying to save all these companies in trouble can lead to throw over the money after bad good, especially if the Chinese economy does pick up t. Therefore, it is able to say that the risk of immediate fall in China is lower for now, but the long-term risks have simply increased.

On the European front, things are looking great for the euro area. The Italian government successfully auctioned 3-year debt at lower Friday despite all the political turmoil, suggesting that investors are beginning to gain the trust and confidence in the currency EUR once more after 5 years of crisis. The same trend is also observed in the Spanish and Portuguese sovereign debt, showing that trust is not isolated only in Italy but also in other European peripherals. This can help cushion losses should risk appetite to plunge suddenly because of the crisis of China's credit, but only time will tell if that reason alone be able to go against risk-off trends in the long term, if it occurs.

Links:
In FX Week Asia - Chinese Fortunes elusive
week in FX Americas - Look beyond the storm clouds
In FX Week Europe - European Recovery Remains in Progress

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – S/T Bullish Narrative Hinges On 1.385 Support

EUR/USD Technicals – S/T Bullish Narrative Hinges On 1.385 Support

EUR / USD traded lower yesterday during the US session in line with "risk off "sentiment seen in US stocks. It pulled EUR / USD with a one-day summit of 1.3966 to a low of 1.3845, erasing all gains made during Asian hours earlier. To be fair, the decline began before the US stock prices began to fall, and that would normally be interpreted as a sign that the feeling in EUR / USD may be slightly bearish. However, in this case clemency should be given that the initial withdrawal is understandable given that there was a lack of strong justification for prices to rally during the hours from Asia. In addition, prices remained above the flexible substrate 1394 to slide in US equities began, suggesting that the general feeling is actually upward and not downward.

Time Table

If the above analysis is correct, we should be able to expect strong support 1.385. Stochastic readings supports this as well, with currently oversold readings and favoring bullish pullbacks going forward. However, this does not mean that 1385 support is invincible. First, we just avoided an upward cycle of good fly there just hours, suggesting that the downward pressure is not exactly disappeared. Furthermore, given that the global risk appetite is still bearish, bears have wind in their sail and could overcome 1.385 if push comes to shove. Therefore, traders who wish to play the 1385 rebound may wish to wait for further confirmations and / or limit the tight stop losses as a confirmed break of 1385 may lead us quickly to 1.375 and below.

Basically, if sustained for EUR / USD is pushing low as USD expected to strengthen due to the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. On the other hand, the ECB has no indication of tightening, although Draghi and his fellow board members have started to move away from their previous policy accommodation. Therefore, even if the upside for EUR / USD is weak, it does not necessarily mean a strong bearish potential is

Links :.
GBP / USD - Pound Recovers and Flirts with 1.67
AUD / USD - Aussie Grows Above 0 As Australian Job Data Shines
USD / JPY - Yen Up As manafacturing Impresses Japanese data

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Read More : EUR/USD Technicals – S/T Bullish Narrative Hinges On 1.385 Support

EUR/USD Technicals – S/T Bullish Narrative Hinges On 1.385 Support

EUR/USD Technicals – S/T Bullish Narrative Hinges On 1.385 Support

EUR / USD traded lower yesterday during the US session in line with "risk off "sentiment seen in US stocks. It pulled EUR / USD with a one-day summit of 1.3966 to a low of 1.3845, erasing all gains made during Asian hours earlier. To be fair, the decline began before the US stock prices began to fall, and that would normally be interpreted as a sign that the feeling in EUR / USD may be slightly bearish. However, in this case clemency should be given that the initial withdrawal is understandable given that there was a lack of strong justification for prices to rally during the hours from Asia. In addition, prices remained above the flexible substrate 1394 to slide in US equities began, suggesting that the general feeling is actually upward and not downward.

Time Table

If the above analysis is correct, we should be able to expect strong support 1.385. Stochastic readings supports this as well, with currently oversold readings and favoring bullish pullbacks going forward. However, this does not mean that 1385 support is invincible. First, we just avoided an upward cycle of good fly there just hours, suggesting that the downward pressure is not exactly disappeared. Furthermore, given that the global risk appetite is still bearish, bears have wind in their sail and could overcome 1.385 if push comes to shove. Therefore, traders who wish to play the 1385 rebound may wish to wait for further confirmations and / or limit the tight stop losses as a confirmed break of 1385 may lead us quickly to 1.375 and below.

Basically, if sustained for EUR / USD is pushing low as USD expected to strengthen due to the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. On the other hand, the ECB has no indication of tightening, although Draghi and his fellow board members have started to move away from their previous policy accommodation. Therefore, even if the upside for EUR / USD is weak, it does not necessarily mean a strong bearish potential is

Links :.
GBP / USD - Pound Recovers and Flirts with 1.67
AUD / USD - Aussie Grows Above 0 As Australian Job Data Shines
USD / JPY - Yen Up As manafacturing Impresses Japanese data

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Sharp Decline But Bull Trend Intact

NZD/USD Technicals – Sharp Decline But Bull Trend Intact

Kiwi dollar suffered significant decline after the failure to break 0.87 round number. This decline is surprising that the major risk trends is obvious upward through global stock indices managed to climb higher. Some will say that USD will strengthen due to inflows as foreign investors are attracted to US stocks hit record once again. But the story is not visible strengthening USD via EUR / USD and GBP / USD. AUD / USD has the lowest trade but that seems to be fallout from NZD / USD affecting its neighbor rather than a case of USD pulling everyone down.

It should also be noted that the decline in NZD / USD has continued with great fervor during the Asian session today, when every other major currency pairs were trading higher against USD or at least stabilized. Therefore, it is reasonable to say that NZD / USD is moving by its own inherent bearishness. The reason for this downward trend may be due to the saturation of bullish positions on the NZD / USD. This is not surprising as going long on NZD was a trade right before the beginning of 2014 as RBNZ central bank said explicitly that they will be touring throughout 2014 - 2015 rate expectations unchanged but as market participants took such a long time to load long positions, it is likely that those who are optimistic have reached their limits and purchase what we see is essentially profit-taking activities before the next bullish wave.

timetable

This would mean that the overall upward momentum is expected to remain intact. Therefore, the probability of 0.859 holding support increases. Stochastic readings are also heavily oversold right now, in favor of a bullish reversal move. However, if prices fail to break the resistance around 0862 (swing high on March 26), then it is likely that the immediate momentum is still bearish and we may see selling more to .853 to .856 before consolidation bulls are starting to buy in NZD / USD once again.

Daily chart

daily chart agrees with the bearish scenario in prices seems to have broken the rising trend line and the round number of 0.86. stochastic indicator on the daily chart is in agreement, indicating that the bearish cycle is underway. However, it is unlikely that prices will be able to break the 0.85 needed to invalidate current bullish breakout as the bear market may be oversold in the region when this happens. This is consistent with our analysis above who claim that the decline in NZD / USD at the moment is just a temporary setback while wise direction we should still expect NZD / USD to be bullish.

It is also important to note the current trend of bullish data stream that is still in play, there is a chance that prices may begin to reverse more without even test 0,850 round number. As such, traders who want to short NZD / USD should cost 0.859 breaks will need to be aware of this and adjust the risk / position size accordingly.

On a side note, there are comments that believes that the first Minster Key said this morning regarding tax audits to weaken NZD is an important contributor to the decline yesterday. But savvy traders would immediately noticed that prices have started to decline well before Key began his speech, and also it is generally difficult for a government / central bank to influence a currency float freely, unless the market is favorable to the movement . As such,

Links:
WTI Crude - staying above 100.0 After yesterday the Sell-Off
S & P 500 - Weak Fundamentals? Market cares As Achieved record
AUD / USD - Aussie Unable to hold gains after RBA rate decision

This item is for for general information only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EURUSD – Euro Rally Breaks Key Resistance

EURUSD – Euro Rally Breaks Key Resistance

Yesterday (EURUSD - Break Lower increasingly likely) I noted that despite trading in a range for much of the last month, the EURUSD continues to have a slight bearish bias as

• remained in the downlink channel;
• had formed a pennant in the last month (mild lower highs and higher lows);
• is still trading below the 50 day SMA.

Well, one of these conditions is under the threat that the euro rally today has pushed the pair above the descending trend line that has traded below since the middle of December.

it is important to note that there were no close above the trend line on 4-hour chart and would like to see at least that before I consider it a legitimate break if not on a daily basis. less time frames could also offer useful insights if we see a new test successfully.

The fact that 1.08 high was broken yesterday is certainly another red flag well and can suggest a move towards 1.0850 Friday high is on the cards . A break of this level suggests to me that we could see another test of SMA 50 days that proved to be a strong resistance level in the past.

should it be broken, it would raise serious questions about whether the upper end of the month long trading range may contain. It would certainly suggested to me that a more optimistic bias appeared on the market

The upper end of the trading range around 1.1030 -. 1.1050 would be seriously threatened in my opinion and a break of this would suggest the long expected correction has arrived.

If, on the other hand, it proves to be a false breakout, which would not be unusual, ADM-50 period on the 4 hour chart and the previous 1.0660 support could come in the severe pressure and quickly.

OANDA clients have become increasingly net short in the last 24 hours, with 61.99% now taking a short position. History suggests that is not necessarily a bearish sign if, in fact, it might even be seen as bullish.

Especially when paired with the COT report which not net trade positions shows (those held by large speculators, mainly hedge funds and commercial banks currency futures for purposes of speculation) for the euro are becoming less short.

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AUD/USD – Drops to Six Year Low Below 0.75

AUD/USD – Drops to Six Year Low Below 0.75

AUD / USD - Monday, July 6, 2015

The Australian dollar has not had his best week down sharply above the key 0.77 level to a new six-year low below 0.75. The AUD / USD was trading now around the level of 0.75 try to consolidate and hold. Some time last week the AUD / USD tested the key support level at 0.76 and enjoyed a solid support before it failed. Throughout last week, the Australian dollar began to feel some selling pressure from the level of 0.77, and his eyes were firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76. There are a few weeks, the AUD / USD fell sharply lower below 0.77 but found strong support for long-term support level at 0.76. This level has provided strong support throughout most of this year, so it is quite significant that it was strongly broken.

there

A few weeks ago, he made a greater leap of below 0.77 until the last three weeks, but he ran straight into the key 0.7850 resistance level, which played this role more time this year. All this time, he also spent most of his time fairly stable operations around the 0.7750 level while enjoying a strong support 0.77. In the last month, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to exert downward pressure on selling the AUD / USD. During this same period, it received strong support from the rock the long term support level at 0.76 which allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion. Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fell sharply four-month high above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD was in a solid medium term trend upward after crossing the 0.7850 key level and reaches four month high above 0.8150.

For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels. The key level remains now 0.76 and it will be interesting to see how the support at this level can contain and stop the trend of sharp decline in the AUD / USD has experienced in recent weeks. The 4 hour chart below shows how constant the recent decline was, but also how significant the level of 0.76 to be able to temporarily halt the decline.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / 5 USD July at 23:40 GMT 0.7488 H: 0, 7518 L: 0.7463

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7500	-	-	0.7850	0.8150	-

During the first hours of the Asian session Monday, the Australian dollar tent to remain above the level of 0.75 after having fallen sharply to a low of six years below 0.75. Current range :. right trading around 0.75

Other levels in both directions

• The following :. 0.7500

• Above :. 0.7850 and 0.8150

Open Ratios position OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the left percentage (blue) shows long positions, the percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD fell over 65 % as the AUD / USD fell to six-year low. below 0.75. The trader sentiment is in favor of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 23:30 (Sun) AU AIG Construction PMI (June)
• 0:30 IN TD-MI gauge inflation (June)
• 1:30 AU ANZ job advertisements (June)
• 2:00 NZ Treasury publishes monthly economic indicators
• 5:00 JP leading indicator (prelim.) (May)
• 7:00 UK Halifax House price Index (sixth to tenth) (June)
• 8:30 EU Sentix indicator (July)
• 2:00 p.m. CA Ivey PMI (June)
• 2:00 p.m. US ISM non-manufacturing (June)

* All times are GMT release of

This Article is solely for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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