NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

The RBNZ releases the property cooling measures implemented rate reductions and NZD lower

This morning, the reserve Bank of new Zealand (RBNZ) has published a consultation document, indicating it intends to adopt further macroprudential measures the country to mitigate systematic risk to the bank mortgages. In a word, the main points are

1. No more than 5 percent of bank lending to residential property investors throughout New Zealand would be allowed with a greater than 60 per cent LVR (ie a deposit less than 40 percent).

2. No more than 10 percent of loans to homeowners across New Zealand would be allowed with an LVR greater than 80 percent (ie a deposit of less than 20 percent).

3. Loans that are exempt from restrictions of existing LVR, including loans for the construction of new housing, continue to be exempted.

Press release here. Press release
Consultation document here. Consultation

The rules will enter into a rapid six weeks in September 1st.

By doing this, the RBNZ tries to remove one of its major roadblocks wise monetary policy. Ie how to reduce rates in a context of low inflation when the housing market is on fire. With a low print on CPI yesterday and Thursday RBNZ update is expected that there will now be a serious conversation on their part vis-à-vis the level of the NZD and intentions re interest rate cuts . It is difficult to interpret in a different way, then they will say the NZD is too high and we can expect a cut at the August meeting and another later in the year.

Certainly, that is what the street is like thinking NZD 2 year swaps make new lows this morning and the NZD fell 80 points 7030. There is certainly no good news on NZD cards this morning.

Our old friend NZD / CAD weekly. Neckline resistance held in 9530.

Support now at 00.

NZD / USD weekly . Double greater than 7305, 100 weeks moving average at 7115.

top bracket of the weekly cloud in 6917.

daily NZDJPY . Support Test here at 74.60. 7410. The next support
resistance 74.0 cloud base and the moving average at 100 days.

daily AUDNZD . Goodness me what a rally this week! Resistance 1.0800 100DMA and cloud top and 0 DMA at 1.0840. Support 1.0630

support 1.0630, below the cloud.

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NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

NZDUSD: The RBNZ Gets Serious!

The RBNZ releases the property cooling measures implemented rate reductions and NZD lower

This morning, the reserve Bank of new Zealand (RBNZ) has published a consultation document, indicating it intends to adopt further macroprudential measures the country to mitigate systematic risk to the bank mortgages. In a word, the main points are

1. No more than 5 percent of bank lending to residential property investors throughout New Zealand would be allowed with a greater than 60 per cent LVR (ie a deposit less than 40 percent).

2. No more than 10 percent of loans to homeowners across New Zealand would be allowed with an LVR greater than 80 percent (ie a deposit of less than 20 percent).

3. Loans that are exempt from restrictions of existing LVR, including loans for the construction of new housing, continue to be exempted.

Press release here. Press release
Consultation document here. Consultation

The rules will enter into a rapid six weeks in September 1st.

By doing this, the RBNZ tries to remove one of its major roadblocks wise monetary policy. Ie how to reduce rates in a context of low inflation when the housing market is on fire. With a low print on CPI yesterday and Thursday RBNZ update is expected that there will now be a serious conversation on their part vis-à-vis the level of the NZD and intentions re interest rate cuts . It is difficult to interpret in a different way, then they will say the NZD is too high and we can expect a cut at the August meeting and another later in the year.

Certainly, that is what the street is like thinking NZD 2 year swaps make new lows this morning and the NZD fell 80 points 7030. There is certainly no good news on NZD cards this morning.

Our old friend NZD / CAD weekly. Neckline resistance held in 9530.

Support now at 00.

NZD / USD weekly . Double greater than 7305, 100 weeks moving average at 7115.

top bracket of the weekly cloud in 6917.

daily NZDJPY . Support Test here at 74.60. 7410. The next support
resistance 74.0 cloud base and the moving average at 100 days.

daily AUDNZD . Goodness me what a rally this week! Resistance 1.0800 100DMA and cloud top and 0 DMA at 1.0840. Support 1.0630

support 1.0630, below the cloud.

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OANDA MP – Oil Rebound Sparks Revival (Video)

OANDA MP – Oil Rebound Sparks Revival (Video)

Tuesday oil rebound has provided a big boost to commodity currencies and similar clues Tuesday. Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam takes a look at some of the tables and gives his analysis on Brent Crude, Dow 30, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold and silver.

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USD/JPY Technicals – Slightly Bearish Amidst Still Water

USD/JPY Technicals – Slightly Bearish Amidst Still Water

USD / JPY has not been directionless since mid April, but the price was moving with wild swings above and below the axle ~ 98.0. This is a reflection of market sentiment which is clearly confused. On the one hand, more and more investors / speculators start losing / have lost confidence in the ability of BOJ and Abenomic artificially weaken Yen more - resulting in gains capped in USD / JPY. Moreover, the Japanese economic fundamentals are brighter than before to research suggesting that abenomics BOJ stimulus and earn at least some traction. But again, the overall Japanese economy remains weak, and there are signs that the increase in the CPI growth rate has not really translated into economic productivity, and therefore there are more who are beginning to recover questioning the overall strategy of an inflation target of 2%.

as a result of this confusion continued, fluctuations in the volatility of USD / JPY has declined steadily. 4 weeks Average True Range decreased from a peak of ~ 400 pips aware ~ 50 pips, the same levels before the prodigious rally late 2012. Safe to say, the rally seems to have effectively ended. Right now, the market is revaluation phase, and waiting for signals from BOJ / Prime Minister Abe.

In this regard, the Bank of Japan was frustrating to say the least. Latest Statement on Monetary Policy on October 31 was a simple case two sentences. There was no mention of the economy, no mention of recent economic events and their impact on Japan, or even if the current level of Yen and interest rates support the inflation target of 2%. They are not helpful and does not provide guidance before the market is looking for now. that meeting minutes were published earlier today, which provided a little more insight than the declaration. But management still ahead is lacking. There was usually mentions that the economy is "moderate recovery", and the risk of an uncertain US monetary policy has been raised, but there was nothing about what the possible answers BOJ would. As such, the market is still not wiser, and this lack of Yen volatility will most likely drag on.

Time Table

from the point of purely technical view, prices are currently being bearish bias negotiation within a soft descending channel. This is in line with the bearish stochastics cycle signal that is currently in. However, a temporary bullish decline is possible that the price has labeled Bottom Canal opens a Top channel pass. There is also the priority for Stoch curve to bounce higher from the level of 60.0, which increases the probability of an upward thrust.

Weekly Chart

weekly chart shows prices faced resistance of the ascending trend line, but stochastic readings are optimistic in its own "consolidation band." However, price volatility down, the likelihood of price breaking the trend line upward decreases, thus a downward movement towards the axle 98.0 mentioned earlier is favored. stochastic readings sort of agreement with "medium" level around 40.0 counteract potentially strong bearish momentum, which reduces the likelihood of prices going too far below the axle 98.0

:. links
AUD / USD - 0.95 Key Resistance Level now offers
EUR / USD - tries to keep 1 35
GBP / USD - surges strongly support the 1.59

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD Technicals – Do Not Mistake Volatility As True Bullish Sentiment

AUD/USD Technicals – Do Not Mistake Volatility As True Bullish Sentiment

If someone told you that normal trading resumed, simply point to him / her AUD / USD hourly chart. Prices have traded at a low of around 0.884 yesterday, before pushing all the way up to more than 0.894 for a total of 0 pips return within 12 hours. It should also be noted that the extraordinary gathering, held at the beginning of the US session has not been seen in EUR / USD or GBP / USD, suggesting that AUD / USD can move on its own right now.

hourly chart

The above observation suggests that AUD / USD is in a state of flux and high volatility should continue to be expected. In this regard, the current break 0.8926 / 27 can not be a strong indication of bullish trend, but a mere reflection of high volatility. Certainly a push towards recent high of just swing above 0,895 is possible, but do not expect strong bullish bias followed by beyond. Similarly, do not assume that bearish sentiment is strong, even if the prices fail to hold its ground above resistance turned support. Looking at recent historical action, it is likely that the price could find support on either the 38.2% or 50.0% Fib retracement and more whipsaw between 0.884 -. 0.895 can wait until the return of normality

Table Daily

Daily chart suggests that a bullish breakout Channel is game, but the bulls will break above 0.89 to confirm the breakout. Interestingly, current upward venture can not tilt the stoch curve the highest point, and the current bullish momentum that started after QE Tapering December 18 remains at risk of spilling. Even if the price breaks 0.895 resolutely and managed to push the curve Stoch higher once again, we are too close to overbought levels for current bullish momentum to have any kind of meaningful follow. 0.03 a test is possible, but it is just as likely, if not more, that prices may weaken the round number of 0.0

Links :.
EUR / USD Technical - Either can Direction After Stabilize
GBP / USD - Steady As UK Manufacturing PMI Dips
S & P 500 - Hangover New Year that decline Price On Profit Taking

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR Technicals – Pushing Lower On USD Weakness

USD/INR Technicals – Pushing Lower On USD Weakness

Weekly Chart

The USD slide last week has greatly benefited from the battered rupee, and perhaps again saved Rupee to new lows. The prices were threatening to escape the Top Channel that would have seen accelerating to 70.0 in the coming weeks, but we stopped short by a weak USD from speculators believe the Fed explores a tapered event December. Whether this is true is debatable, that the market earned their belief so-called "pacifist" declarations of Janet Yellen. But the fact remains -. USD / INR pushes down and threatening to break the channel rising again

If Top Channel be violated, the consolidation area ceiling beneath will be the obvious downside target. It is possible that prices may find some support there, or maybe just a support under the ceiling similar to what happened in mid October. Indeed, the stochastic readings suggest that the bearish momentum is likely oversold when this happens, and whereas the general trend is more oriented all the way since August 2013, there are always technical trend for bulls to recover. When we add to this the economic fundamentals continue to favor a lower INR, the risk of a sudden and unexpected bounce becomes even higher.

Time Table

short-term pressure continues to favor INR at the moment, partly because of the risk on appetite which led Sensex 1.68% higher at the moment. However, the scenario can change quickly with the support face price of 62.5 round figure which is confluence November 8 Swing Low. Stochastic readings also approaching oversold territory with tapered flat curve Stoch. Therefore, even if 62.5 is broken, it is likely that prices may find support from the descending trend line and higher bounce.

But there could be more graces saving for USD / INR this week. If US operators maintain their hyper-sensitivity to cone QE speculation, we have many opportunities for further USD weakness that can send prices lower. US NAHB index of housing prices, Advance retail sales and perhaps even the CPI numbers can cause huge reactions this week, even though such news would have been considered "low" in the past. If all the numbers come lower than expected, it is likely that USD will push down even faster, resulting in a lower USD / INR can bring us back to 61.3 again.

However astute traders realize that it will not be able to change the long-term dynamics, where Rupee remains inherently weak due to poor fundamentals. Case in point, when USD weakened back in August and late September due to stop US Governmental / Debt Crisis ceiling, USD / INR did not fall down, but ultimately rise again. Therefore, do not bet that just because the volatility of short-term news can sink USD / INR, prices will be able to remove a long-term bearish reversal without RBI do something radical to change the fortunes of India.

Links:
Gold Technicals - Bearish Moderately But Bulls May Lurk
AUD / USD Technicals - Bumpy Journey To 0,943 expected
EUR / USD Technicals - 1.35 Resistance Strong hold

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.82 But Don’t Expect Landslide

NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Below 0.82 But Don’t Expect Landslide
]

Time Table

Kiwi dollar collected in the first hour after the starting market trading this week, led by declines in USD that affected all pairs of USD across the board. However, prices were unable to sustain the pressure above the .820 to .822 resistance band which has been in the game since last Thursday and has since returned lower. Currently we are trading below the open this week and the below 0.819 flexible support point of negotiation which could potentially open up a move towards 0,815 support

There are additional bearish signs as well -. The thrust of this morning is the lowest bullish 3 attempts to break the resistance band mentioned above, with prices that can not match the peaks of the swing Thursday and Friday. In addition, the immediate bearish reaction followed the failure seems to be the strongest among the same few attempts to increase, suggesting that the downward pressure is greatest and a push beyond 0815 should not be excluded. In addition, stochastic readings are suitable, with the stochastic crossing curve signal line and promoting a down cycle going forward. However, it should be noted that the curve Stoch should ideally grow below 65.0 to 68.0 show the strongest conviction decline. This reinforcement of the notion that prices will clear the level of 0.819 before stronger bearish momentum may follow. Not doing so does not invalidate necessary current bearish bias, but certainly can allow bulls to hold for a little while longer.

Table Daily

daily chart is similar bearish, but the two studies on indicators and the stochastic lines suggest that the price may not be able to hit a low maximum of 0.81 in the near future - because of the level of multi-month media seen in conjunction with stochastic curve tell us that the greatest current down cycle part is already over . This perspective is also in line with fundamentals that promotes NZD higher in 2014 and 2015 because of rising prospects rate RBNZ, with the first round of rate hike should come in March 2014, and much more to come from 2.25% in total. Although RBNZ explicitly stated that they prefer to see NZD lower, it is unlikely they will be able to see it happen for their own term rates rise. In addition, it is unlikely that they will be too unhappy with NZD higher as this would contribute to the fight against inflation at the same time prevent hot money too to enter New Zealand as foreigners seeking higher transportation. Therefore, expect NZD remains well supported against the dollar, while the greenback should get higher against all major currencies with QE Tapering becoming a real thing

Links :.
week FX Americas - Bernanke Tapers on his final FOMC
week FX Asia - abenomics First year The end of deflation
week FX in Europe - European Union on the naughty list S & P downgraded to AA +

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Trend Remains Firm

NZD/USD Technicals – Bearish Trend Remains Firm

Kiwi dollar went on the back foot today, with trading slightly lower prices over the early hours of Asia, continuing the downward trend that has been in the game since January 14, which has also seen a further acceleration / extension on Friday. Bulls experienced a brief renaissance brought by stronger than China Q4 GDP expected but the upward pressure quickly evaporated with prices testing the flexible support of 0.8245 at the moment.

Time Table

This highlights the strong downward trend in the NZD / USD, and suggest that bearish momentum still remain in the game. However, it should be noted that it is not all roses parks in China, even as GDP is actually below expectations when accounting for seasonality. In addition, production figures and retail sales industry are both below expectations, suggesting that the Chinese economy is certainly not as strong as the number of overall GDP growth may suggest. Therefore, we should not hold against NZD / USD not above to hold the gains.

From a technical standpoint, the bulls seem to do pretty well. The decline this morning managed to stay above the downward trend line, while the Stochastic readings suggest that a bull market is in play now - recognizing that a bullish rebound from the trend line is possible , which would open a potential push towards 0.828. Then again traders who wish to participate in this potential movement needs to realize that they would go against the short-term momentum is bearish and weak Chinese fundamentals that is bearish for NZD as well. Therefore, even if the bulls faced well amid strong downward pressure, the probability of a sharp rebound is low.

Table Daily

Daily Chart is bearish as well, with the share price today break down channel up, adding additional downward pressure for a move towards 0,815. Stochastic readings are in agreement, with the current level near 50.0 Stoch midst of a bear market is at stake Therefore, it will really brave (read: rash). trader to play the short-term rebound. Certainly, with RBNZ would raise rates soon, the likelihood of become highly NZD is there, but in this case NZD USD will face with the rise, and the end result could simply be trading direction, least on the side which is similar to what we have seen since September 2013. this increases the likelihood of holding 0,815, but does little to suggest that NZD / USD will be able to rally all the way up in the short term by 0.84 .

Links:
GBP / USD - 1.6450 resistance Rebounds Off Again
AUD / USD - Drops to multiyear Low 0.8750 Close
EUR / USD - Drops Low to eight weeks Around 1.35

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Back Within 0.82 – 0.825 After “Fakeout”

NZD/USD Technicals – Back Within 0.82 – 0.825 After “Fakeout”

Kiwi dollar was trading lower today despite improving appetite for risk during the Asian sessionwhich saw Nikkei 225 climbing 2.17% and the Hang Seng index 1.08% at time of writing. Prices climb higher in the session of the United States at the beginning led by strong rebound in US stocks. However, prices began to rapidly reverse falling below the 0,825 ceiling turned support by the end of the US session, making the push earlier over a 0.825 "fakeout".

Time Table

The failure to maintain prices above 0.825 is a strong sign that market sentiment Kiwi Dollar is not exactly bullish. This is not a new revelation that the muted reaction of a job that provided strong change Wednesday already told us. This notion is further reinforced during the analysis of our Thursday's price action. Therefore, there really was no business for the bulls to break 0,825 yesterday and therefore the subsequent decline can not be considered surprising. This also means that the probability of price 0.825 rupture and the confluence with the rising trend line now will be lower. Stochastic readings longer point but looking at historical movement Stoch suggest an opportunity Stoch curve inversion here, where another point of inflections were spotted. Therefore, a move back towards 0.82 round number is favored, but if the price breaks above without any fundamental support we have seen rapid downward retaliation just like what we saw earlier aujourd 'hui.

Daily Graphic

similar daily chart does not share with the uptrend. Stochastic readings moves to a "resistance" level of 70.0, while the prices doji candlestick suggests that management is undecided. However, until 0.82 support is intact, the "fakeout" of 0815 and move later in the consolidation channel can not be excluded, and traders should still take note of the midterm scenario where 0.84 is the intended target . As such, bearish traders who want to participate in a potential of 0.82 movement should be more careful because it can be considered a move against the trend.

Non-Farm Payroll today will help shed light on the supposed bearish sentiment. As US stocks / risk appetite may be expected to experience high volatility after the NFP figures are released, we should be able to see wild swings on NZD / USD as well. If 0,825 ceiling continue to keep, even if initial message direction NFP is bullish, bearish sentiment underlying be confirmed and vice versa for 0.82 support

Links :.
GBP / USD - Range Between 1.6250 and 1.6350 Establishment
AUD / USD - from challenge resistance at 0.0
EUR / USD - Surges Through 1.3550 Key level

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – RBNZ Rate Hike Expectation Increases Future Downside Risk

NZD/USD Technicals – RBNZ Rate Hike Expectation Increases Future Downside Risk
]

Kiwi dollar traded slightly lower today in line with other risk correlated trades which have been depressed the get go today following weaker Chinese economic figures over the weekend exacerbated by the Japanese GDP figures were revised down today. Given all these factors bear it rather astonishing that NZD / USD shed only 20 pips while most other risk assets have fallen 1% or more. Certainly, the strongest figures Manufacturing Q4 to New Zealand released at 5:45 am SGT (5:45 p.m. EDT) helped to buffer against extreme downward pressure on the market, but the credit must still be given to the bullish underlying strength that the initial reaction the manufacturing numbers were muted, suggesting that the bullish impact of the news is rather limited.

timetable

However, it should also be noted that the strong upside resistance inherent failed to prevent prices to break down the rising channel, which exhibits 0.845. If the price breaks 0.845, the probability of a new bearish momentum is increasing and we could see bullish momentum completely unravel. Stochastic indicator has given a bullish cycle signal this morning, but this signal is under threat as Stoch curve is now less advanced and crossed the signal line. Therefore, possibility of downward extension here can not be ignored. Moreover, even if 0.845 support holds, the price will rise above the bottom of the channel and preferably above 0.847 to restore bull back. Do not do it and the downside risk remains as low sense of risk can lead to lower prices again.

Table Daily

downward pressure is even greater on the daily chart where prices seem to be leading to the resistance 0.855 . That said, there is no immediate downside risk that the price will break the growing trend of online trade and preferably less than 0.84 round number before strong bearish conviction can take root. stochastic indicator is in agreement - although Stoch curve is below 80.0 level and the signal line not far behind the curve Stoch should ideally grow below 70.0 "support" to demonstrate a strong bearish momentum

with the rate decision of the RBNZ next Thursday (. 4 p.m. Wednesday night EDT), it is unlikely that aggressive traders to short here and now that most of the market expects an increase RBNZ rates this time - a notion that is supported even by New Zealand Prime Minister himself this morning. However, this does not mean that there is a higher risk of falling should actually go ahead RBNZ fail to raise rates. Even if RBNZ push rates greater the chance that bullish follow through will be limited as the market has already taken into account a large piece of this possibility, which results in greater opportunity to "buy the rumor , sell the news "play. out

Links:
AUD / USD - Facilitates far from resistance level at 0.91
EUR / USD - shockwaves two-year high above 1.39
GBP / USD - Resistance Level at 1.68 wide bundles

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/JPY Technicals – Testing 103.0 Resistance

USD/JPY Technicals – Testing 103.0 Resistance

More bearish news from Japan. Industrial production for February increased 6.9% vs. 9.9% expected on a base Y / Y M / M base is even worse, the decrease of 2.3% when planned growth 3.6%. This is not the first time that the figures of industrial production, however, were disappointing. Since the beginning of 2013, this economic measure came in below expectations 12 of 15 times. However, this did not prevent traders to believe the hype abenomics before, with Japanese stocks climbing all JPY still weakening for most of the year 2013.

Things are pretty similar in moment. Nikkei 225 is bullish today, despite the latest setback, while the USD / JPY continues to climb higher, although the most recent data once again reflects the failure of abenomics or at the very least on the market optimism on the effectiveness of the stimulus far. It is also possible that these traders are simply focused on the possibility of additional stimulus by BOJ in May or June The only problem is that the Bank of Japan have tried to distance away / refusing to commit to a stimulus confirmed top up, instead opting to use rhetorical statements on how they will intervene if necessary (perhaps be they made a playbook sheet Draghi). Therefore, there is a huge chance that the market will be disappointed in time, increasing the potential risk of deterioration.

It should also be noted that the USD / JPY has been steady in February and March, two months traditionally see the strengthening of the Yen due to the repatriation of overseas funds by Japanese . The reason prices are not can be attributed to the fact that foreign funds were seen leaving Japanese equities. This increases the risk of falling further Japanese stocks but is a mixed signal for Yen.

If abenomics ultimately fail, it is possible that the Japanese Yen will strengthen in the short term the market will resume premiums they have given USD / JPY in the last 1.5 years on the promise of BOJ Intervention. However, the fundamentals will also dictate the demand for yen will be weaker than the Japanese economy is likely to be extremely low (and perhaps even hopeless), even if abenomics fail to revive the sleeping giant. Therefore, the Convention on the Yen being a "safe haven" may need to be rewritten and you could see Yen capitulating in the worst case for the Japanese economy.

That being said, it seems that Japanese traders are still "living the dream". What this means is that the violation of 103.0 resistance is possible because the prices have just broken above the downward trend line, while the Stochastic Curve still have the space to go higher before the end the current bull cycle. However, a break above 103.75 previous swing high is less certain. However, if the market continues to believe that the additional stimulus comes BOJ, a break of resistance mentioned above for a return above 104.0 is impossible

More Links: .
AUD / USD Technical - bearish Response Seen Ahead Of 0.93 Break, RBA Rate Decision
In FX Week Asia - Kiwi on steroids
USD / JPY - Japanese retail sales strong, CPI fail Yen to move

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Support Level at 0.76 Stands Tall

AUD/USD – Support Level at 0.76 Stands Tall

AUD / USD - Tuesday, June 30, 2015

to close the last week the AUD / USD fell sharply lower below 0.77 but found strong support for long-term support level at 0.76. This level has provided strong support throughout most of this year and was named again in the last day. In recent times, he used the support of 0.76 and jumped back to 0.77 times. Throughout last week the AUD / USD eased lower and was enjoying the 0.77 level key support before selling. A few weeks ago, he made a greater leap of below 0.77 until the last three weeks, but he ran right to resistance at 0.7850 key, which played this role several times this year. A few weeks ago, he also spent most of his time fairly stable operations around the 0.7750 level while enjoying a strong support 0.77.

During the last month, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to put selling pressure on the AUD / USD. During this same period, it received strong support from the rock the long term support level at 0.76 which allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion. Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fell sharply four-month high above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD was in a solid medium term trend upward after crossing the 0.7850 key level and reaches four month high above 0.8150.

For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels. The key level remains now 0.76 and it will be interesting to see how the support at this level can contain and stop the trend of sharp decline in the AUD / USD has experienced in recent weeks. The 4 hour chart below shows how constant the recent decline was, but also how significant the level of 0.76 to be able to temporarily halt the decline.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / 29 USD June at 23:50 GMT 0.7672 H: L 0.7682: 0.7672

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.70	-	-	0.7850	0.8150	-

During the first hours of the Asian session on Tuesday, the Australian dollar is easing back from the level of 0.77 after surging so far in the past hours. Current range :. trading just below 0.7680

Other levels in both directions

• The following :. 0.70

• Above :. 0.7850 and 0.8150

Open Ratios position OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the left percentage (blue) shows long positions, the percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD fell below 60% as the AUD / USD jumped back at 0.77 in the past. hours. The trader sentiment is in favor of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 11:30 p.m. (Monday) IN AIG Manufacturing PMI (June)
• 11:50 p.m. (Monday) JP Tankan (Q2 )
• 1:00 trust NZ NBNZ business (June)
• 1:30 AU private sector credit (May)
• 5:00 JP Construction orders (May)
• JP 5:00 starts (May)
• 8:30 UK current account (Q1)
• 8:30 UK GDP (3rd Est.) (Q1)
• 8:30 UK Index services (April)
• 9:00 EU HICP flash (June)
• 9:00 EU unemployment (May)
• 12:30 CA GDP (April)
• 13:00 US S & P Case-Shiller Home Price (April)
• 13:45 US Chicago PMI (Jun)
trust
• US Consumer 2:00 p.m. (June)

* All times are GMT release of

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EURUSD – Enters Correction as Resistance Broken

EURUSD – Enters Correction as Resistance Broken

The euro failed to hold early gains against the dollar yesterday and extended its losing streak against the dollar four sessions. But that does not necessarily mean that any consolidation or correction has already played and the price of today's action supports it.

Of course, it is easy to say at this time, with today's prices have already removed the tops of yesterday and still trading above. But there were warning signs before that.

The candle represents indecision yesterday and while it is considered more bullish than bearish, as the bulls were unable to maintain gains, does not require confirmation. The inability of bears to create new lows today means that the confirmation was lacking. The fact that the price instead crossed the peaks of yesterday is quite optimistic.

Another good warning sign was the divergence between the price action and the MACD and Stochastic, leading to new lows being made yesterday but the move getting no traction whatsoever. In fact, the 4 hour candle was not even close below the lower front and the next attempt to break below the new lower failed.

Following another strong move higher in the pair around the US Open, the pair faces resistance around 1.0920, which coincides with low 7 July . While we can see some profit taking at this level, there is still a lot of momentum in this movement, suggesting any consolidation will be temporary. Of course, this may change, but this is the way it currently appears

As pointed out yesterday (EURUSD - Positive Start But still bearish outlook). If the pair passes above this level the next significant level of resistance would be 1.0965. This is a previous support level and 38.2% retracement of the move from 10 to 20 July peaks low in July

Further resistance could be found above here between 1.090 -. Line marabuzo emphasized yesterday - 1.1020 and with it having previously been a key area of ​​support and resistance. It is also allows tracing of 50% of the above movement.

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GBPUSD – Inverse Head and Shoulders?

GBPUSD – Inverse Head and Shoulders?

new Cable bounced off its 89 days simple moving average on Friday and has since rallied and got the week off to a good start ? Despite some weakness early in the European session

failure to break below Friday's low this morning, could be considered a bullish signal, especially if it is accompanied by a close above 1.5572 -. two thirds of the way into Thursday's candle - that would complement a morning star formation. Some consider this to be the case if we see a close more than half in it, so above 1.5557.

Even then, I find it hard to get too carried away. The pair is clearly some form of consolidation phase that is supported by the fundamental picture of currencies. Two countries, each experience with decent recoveries central banks intend to raise rates, but being held back by persistent low inflation.

Technically, there is much resistance around 1.5625 to 1.5675 with the pair failed to break through here many times in recent weeks.

short term, 1.5550 could offer some resistance with it after a key level on a number of occasions in the past. A break above here would also represent a break above support and the most recent resistance levels, which is significant.

It could also be argued that 1.5550 marks the neckline of an imperfect inverse head and shoulders with 1.5458 shoulders and head to 1.5425. If this is the case, then according to the distance thereof from the neck, it could give a conservative price projection approximately 1.5642 and 1.5675 of an aggressive, which coincides with the high mentioned earlier.

The tools above and others can be found in OANDA Forex Labs.

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AUDUSD – Triangle Holds Clue to Next Move

AUDUSD – Triangle Holds Clue to Next Move

It was a mixed week for AUDUSD which began with the pair breaking the neckline of the double bottom and looking much more optimistic, before falling below again on weak Chinese trade data and speculation that the reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates at the next meeting.

the result of what has been some consolidation in the pair and forming a triangle that could offer clues about his next move.

There is still an argument for future gains in the pair, despite China slows and growing speculation that the RBA may cut rates at its next meeting on November 3. First, far lower RBA rate speculation and China slowdown is nothing new.

The chart also suggests traders are undecided at this stage rather than decreasing. Price consolidates rather than fall. Wednesday's low does not break below the daily closing levels in the middle of the double bottom so depending on how you measure these formations, one could argue that it remains intact (although I prefer to use the up rather than closing it is therefore invalid now in my opinion).

While the triangle on the map is only speculative, because it is only connected by two points on each trend line, a break above suggests that traders are more optimistic again. A break below would not even say that the market is bearish again, it could simply mean we see a greater return fib retracement level of 50% or 61.8% and the formation of a flag or falling corner.

meanwhile we could see more consolidation in the pair and the next clue might come from the way he reacts to the support trend line, assuming that it reached that level.

It is interesting to see the order book OANDA shows a number of purchase orders opened around 0.7220 and 0.72, the two key levels down in this pair. There are also a growing number of open positions as the pair slightly lower which suggests that many traders who see this as a dip rather than a longer maturity movement.

in the last month, the OANDA clients were very well positioned in this pair then this could be considered a bullish signal.

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USDJPY and JPY Crosses. Storm Clouds Gathering….

USDJPY and JPY Crosses. Storm Clouds Gathering….

A quiet end to the week in Asia, but the storm clouds seem to be gathering a point technical view on JPY Crosses.

Asia certainly has a "Friday" feel about it today. G-20 this weekend, BOJ and FOMC next week. Moreover, the most important for the Kiwi, the start of the Super 18 play-offs tonight rugby, have combined to leave Asia in a wait and see mode through the markets as the week winds down.

The most interesting next week is clearly the Bank of Japan pumped with street for announcements of additional large stimulus packages and quantitative easing. The street was awash with gossip of 20 trillion Yen packages and helicopter money.

USD / JPY hourly

There may be a positioning indication USD / JPY when the "helicopter no money" title was released BOJ Kuroda yesterday that USD / JPY quickly dropped 180 points in 30 minutes. When the Nikkei newspaper suggested this morning that the package could be as high as 30 trillion JPY, USD / JPY jumped to 106.20 before drifting to its lowest around 105.80.

looking at the hourly chart the recent highs at 106.20 coincide with the moving average of 100 hours. low multiples around 105.60 / 65 and the moving average 0 hours to 105.45 form initial support with a break opening of a deeper correction.

USD / JPY Daily

The daily chart is even more interesting with USD / JPY drawing a day outside reversal yesterday. IE make a new high, then closing at a new low, and then the day before.

ichimoko the cloud base daily for the 106.55 resistance first with 104.80 double bottom support.

AUD / JPY Daily.

Looking equally spectacular to end the week. Another day outside reversal yesterday (Engulfing Bearish for the purists). The cross was unable to maintain even yesterdays low. With the first significant support cloud base at 78.15. The RBA is widely expected to cut next week. With the potential relief positions / JPY long XXX and / or BOJ disappointment, there is significant potential for a decent technical downside movement. A break of 81.00, the cloud top and 100 day moving cancels the average.

Interestingly OANDA Labs AUDJPY long position continues to be high at 63.45% and behind GBPCHF XAGUSD.

The comprehensive overview of the ratios long / short and other analyzes is available here .... https://www.oanda.com/forex- trading / analysis / open-position ratios

NZD / JPY Daily

a similar picture to the above the fall of the cloud and low recent test. Resistance 74.35 cloud base and cloud top 74.85 and the moving average of 100 days. Again, it is all about the Bank of Japan next week but if the RBA has been cut, the RBNZ is a done deal to cut the week after.

TRY / JPY weekly

Is this the worst carry trade in the world? For most of the past 18 months, the currency pair with one of the best fictitiously differential ported to the world has lost a huge 39.39%. (See blue box on the graph) With the political uncertainty in Turkey continue, it is very tactical, or the very brave!

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EUR/USD – Yellen Nominated, Euro Halts Sharp Slide

EUR/USD – Yellen Nominated, Euro Halts Sharp Slide

EUR / USD shows little movement on Thursday as the pair trades slightly above line 1 35. The pair has stabilized after sharp losses the euro Tuesday. There were many developments around the Federal Reserve Wednesday. As expected, President Obama nominated Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve. In addition, the minutes of the FOMC meeting indicated that most policy makers favor tapering QE before the end of the year. In economics, French and Italian industrial production news came well below their estimates. Wednesday's highlight is the US Unemployment Claims.

The dollar was broadly higher in Wednesday trading as President Obama appointed Susan Yellen to head the Federal Reserve. Yellen take over from Bernard Bernanke, who is due to retire next year. Yellen, who is currently vice president of the Fed, became the main candidate after former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers withdrew his candidacy. Yellen is considered favorable to the status quo in position and supported Bernanke in three rounds of QE increases. His appointment must be confirmed by the Senate, but it should be broadly supported.

The minutes of the policy meeting in September Federal Reserve were released Wednesday. At the meeting, the Fed surprised markets by opting to stay on course with its bond purchase program, which is taking place at 85 billion $ / month. The minutes said that the decision not to start narrowing was a "close call". This has increased speculation that we could see narrowing before the end of the year. However, the monkey wrench in all this is the financial uncertainty of the judgment and the threat of the debt crisis. In addition, the Fed relies heavily on key releases such as non-farm payrolls, which were hanging off. It is unlikely that we will see any attempt to reduce QE before December at the earliest.

The American case has now entered its second week, and neither side seems to show some flexibility. Polls show that the majority of the public blame Republicans for the impasse, which is likely to increase pressure on Republicans to agree to pass the budget so that the government can resume operations. The economic damage of the judgment should not be important if the crisis is resolved soon, but the political fallout is likely to be important.

As if Congress does not have its plate full with the budget deficit and to stop a crisis in the debt ceiling could trigger a devastating financial crisis. The US has a debt of $ 16700000000000, and the country will run out of funds to pay off debt on October 17 unless Congress authorizes the raising of the debt ceiling. Otherwise, the US could potentially default on its obligations, which could cause chaos in national and international markets. There are a lot of bad blood between Republicans and Democrats on the closure, and this will undoubtedly complicate negotiations on the debt ceiling. There are signs of some progress, the talks between the parties on the possibility of a short-term increase in the debt limit, avoiding a default for now.

EUR / USD for Thursday, October 10, 2013

EUR / 10 USD October at 10:20 GMT

EUR / USD 1.3521 H: L 1.3533: 1.3488

EUR / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.3335	1.3410	1.3500	1.3585	1.3649	1.3786

• EUR / USD stable trading Thursday. The pair tested the 1.35 line during the Asian session, but increased slightly.
• The pair continues resistance 1.3585. It is followed by resistance at 1.3649, which held good since the beginning of February.
• The pair is putting strong pressure on the round number of 1.35. Is this key support line hold? This is followed by support at 1.3410
• Current range :. 1.3500 to 1.3585

Other levels in both directions

• Below: 1.3500, 1.3410 , 1.3335, 1.3162 and 1.3100
• above: 1.3585, 1.3649, 1.3786, 1.3893 and 1.4000

Open positions ratio [deOANDA

report EUR / USD is unchanged in Thursday trading. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, which trades in a narrow range. The ratio continues to have a solid majority of short positions, indicative of a strong trader through to the US dollar gained ground against the euro.

After suffering losses Wednesday, EUR / USD is struggling to stay above the 1.35 line. With the US disseminate key employment data later in the day, we could see some movement in the pair if the output does not match market expectations.

EUR / USD Fundamentals

• 6:45 French industrial production. 0.7% estimate. Actual 0.7%.
• 8:00 Monthly Bulletin of the ECB.
• 8:00 Italian industrial production. Estimate 0.6%, -0.3% real.
• 12:00 US Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew Speaks. Lew will testify on the debt limit before the Senate Finance Committee.
• 24:30 US unemployment claims. 307K estimate.
• 1:45 p.m. US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks James.
• 2:30 p.m. US natural gas storage. 96B estimate.
• 4:20 p.m. ECB President Draghi Speaks.
• 5:01 p.m. US 30-year Bond Auction.
• 4:45 p.m. US FOMC member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

* All GMT release time

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR – Bullish But 62.4 Resistance Hangs Overhead

USD/INR – Bullish But 62.4 Resistance Hangs Overhead

Indian Rupee has not moved as expected yesterday, with prices quickly recovered above the 61.6 instead of pushing the level of support 61.35. With USD trading flat during the same period, due to the reversal of yesterday seems to be based on the weakness of the INR. However, there was no release of fundamental news during the period might have changed sense, and the only reasonable explanation would be INR bullish traders realizing that they themselves overwhelmed by shorting USD / INR following numbers PMI when the prices of stocks and risk appetite do not support such a bullish reaction.

This would mean that the next rally can be interpreted as a one-off revaluation and does not necessarily mean that the overall feeling of USD / INR. This could also explain why USD / INR dipped down again during the Asian session today, even if new basic badly needed again.

Technicals play an important role as well. It is likely that short-circuited swing traders USD / INR above the ceiling of 62.0, adding downward pressure on the top of the gentle downward bias of origin was seen Monday. This statement is strengthened when we see that prices were supported by the original descending channel that was set last Friday's decline. The bullish response resulting is huge, but we are again facing resistance once again in the form of high-swing last Friday.

Time Table

Considering that this decision is purely technical, it is hard to imagine price gain much traction above 62.2. However, stochastic readings remain optimistic for now, with the current reading level suggests that prices may even reach up to 62.4 ~ using the previous upward cycle as a reference. However, there is every chance that stochastic readings will be able to reverse from here, because there are priority with many inflection points around current levels over the last 5 trading days, which opens 61 6 as bearish target.

Weekly Chart

Weekly Chart agrees with a possible bearish decline and because prices are now testing Top channel right now. Interestingly, Top Channel is currently around 62.4 as well, adding credence to the above analysis that short-term bullish momentum may run out of steam around there. This increases the strength of the resistance of the Top channel and opens a passage to 61.35 again

Links:
USD / JPY Technicals - slightly bearish Among Still . water
NZD / USD - Post Rally employment data Lacking punch
GBP / USD - strongly support surges 1.59

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Read More : USD/INR – Bullish But 62.4 Resistance Hangs Overhead

OANDA MP – Safe Havens Prosper (Video)

OANDA MP – Safe Havens Prosper (Video)

Senior analyst Craig Erlam market gives his analysis on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP, EURJPY, GBPJPY, Gold Silver and DAX.

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GBP/USD Technicals – No Clear Bearish Mandate Despite 150 Pip Decline

GBP/USD Technicals – No Clear Bearish Mandate Despite 150 Pip Decline

Cable pushed sharply lower yesterday, despite early glimpses bullishness. Prices rallied above the get-go and managed to hit a high of 1.6603, but that did not stop the tumbling prices sharply to a low of 1,641 US before noon. This decrease was driven by lower production than expected UK PMI, resulting breaking 1646 support which was the previous low this week.

However, if you look closely the price action. we notice that the biggest drop zone does not occur when the PMI figures were released, but was more aggressive during the hours of the US at first, perhaps driven by risk sentiment in line with the S fall & P 500. in addition, the decline actually began at the end of the afternoon before the European session began with the resistance turned support around 1,678 already broken before the announcement. In addition, the manufacturing PMI numbers amounted to a strong 57.3, which is far from shabby although it is lower than the 58.2 expected. Although this number is bearish, it should not have triggered a decline of 150 pips.

Time Table

Does this mean that prices are now bearish? Considering that AUD / USD and EUR / USD move erratically, merchants can choose to file the share price yesterday to the same folder "irrational volatility" as the volume of the market may not have been fully restored. Moreover, even if unable to negotiate over 1,646 must be chalked as bearish confirmation, bears have failed to recover any winnings earned since Christmas, and even if we exchange all the way to 1635 while this may simply be regarded as the lowest correcting market after the bulls are overloaded. Therefore, it will be premature to claim that GBP / USD has now turned bearish and we will certainly need further confirmation of the bearish appropriate sentence.

Table Daily

daily chart shows that the price is about to break the bottom corner, with stochastic indicator showing a bearish signal. If this is correct, we could see a downward thrust that could lead us to at least 1626. But before we get too excited, it should be noted that the corner drawn here is not "clean" with the summary points of contact. Therefore, we need a clear confirmation that the price has broken the trend line, echoing the need for additional confirmation in the table in the short term

Links:
S & P 500 - New Hangover. Year Price Drop On Profit Taking
USD / JPY - rangebound to start New Year

This item is for purposes general information only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Bearish Bias Remains Despite RBA Minutes Reflecting Non-Commitment To Cut Rates

AUD/USD – Bearish Bias Remains Despite RBA Minutes Reflecting Non-Commitment To Cut Rates

Australian dollar took a small dive this morning following the release of the RBA meeting minutes. Prices reached a low of 0.9352 after the minutes revealed that further rate cuts are possible. However, further reading reveals that the threat of immediate rate cuts are not present, resulting in a strong rebound that sent prices by 30 pips at the time that followed.

This is actually not surprising, because it should be noted that this report is taken from the 5th meeting in November, where RBA ultimately decided not to bring lower rates. Therefore, it should already be a given that the minutes should not reflect openly pacifist tones. Since the minutes, RBA said that housing prices should rise further, reducing the possibilities down rates - as would be inflationary in nature, and certainly encourage more mortgage loans and therefore even higher prices. However, RBA stated its concern that the growth rates are moderate, which means they would have some form of easing measures in the future. This concept is even stronger when RBA reiterated that AUD is too high - it is clear that RBA want to do something, and now they are being prevented from reducing outright rate. It may be a long shot, but the possibility of unconventional easing methods (read: EQ). Rest, and help bring AUD lower, while helping growth - kill two birds with one stone

hourly chart

Perhaps this is due to the RBA outlook that has kept the AUD / USD rally verified. Again, it is also possible that traders are simply focused on the weak Australian economic fundamentals, resulting in an inherent bearishness that pushed AUD / USD back to around 0.937. From a purely technical perspective, prices have broken with the bottom of the Channel Rising, which weakens the upward pressure that has been in the game since November 14. The upward thrust resulting failed to rise in the channel, strengthening of bearish sentiment and opens a possible move towards 0.929.

stochastic reading is bullish if, with a bull cycle signal is at stake now, but it is unlikely that prices will be able to break much higher because we have the 0.939 resistance and the confluence with overhead low hanging channel. In addition, the curve Stoch will face "resistance" around 30.0 and 45.0 levels (based on historical intermediate trough), where it will not be surprising to see this bull cycle being cut short, with both price and curve Stoch less movement in the immediate future.

table Daily

long-term chart is bullish if we reference the rally since early September prices rebounded from the level of 0.93, with upside target as 0.952 and 0.940 as intermediate resistance. However, the long-term trend (see weekly chart) is actually bearish, and should current recovery capped below 0,952, the probability of a head and shoulders pattern increases which can potentially bring us all the way to under 0.0 levels in the coming months. Right now, however, the possibility of a fall from here is still possible that the stochastic curve is also facing its own "strength" of 35.0. If the curve Stoch 35.0 pauses coupled with a break of 0.94 prices, the probability of an upward thrust increases.

But traders should be aware that the long-term fundamentals continue to favor a stronger USD (due cone eventual QE) and a lower AUD (due RBA being forced to cut rates or by unconventional methods of easing). Therefore, even if the bullish momentum is building, traders should be alert a bearish pullbacks will be lurking and pounce when weakness in the bullish momentum is seen

Links :.
GBP / USD - Pound As little change remains above 1.61
USD / CAD - Loonie Edges Higher As Purchases of foreign securities jumps
USD / JPY - Dollar Eases but remains above 100

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Bearish Bias But Strong Bullish Support Expected

EUR/USD Technicals – Bearish Bias But Strong Bullish Support Expected

Time Table

downside pressure remains intact for EUR / USD despite Friday's rally managed to push above 1.37 momentarily. However, not only the price unable to break the round figure number, prices fell quickly under the 1369 ceiling and soft, highlighting the strong downward pressure that EUR / USD is under. This morning was brief respite for the bulls once again, but the bullish venture start was stopped by the combined resistance of 1.369 gentle resistance and the downward trend line which is in post FOMC Wednesday game (Thursday Asian hours). This still open Friday's background as possible bearish target once, and we could see a downward acceleration should push prices below 1,367 flexible support.

Table Daily

Daily chart is bearish with bullish effort Friday unable to break above the rising trend line , piling pressure even more bearish on prices. A silver lining for the bulls, however, remain as Stochastic on the daily chart is less steep than ever and can even lower the current level - where previous low was seen in mid October. Therefore, it may be premature to assume that the test rising trendline ended, even if prices do not grow below the rising trend line, we could always find significant support near 1.36 readings as stochastic will most likely be in the region oversold when it happens.

Basically, we have to wonder if EUR must be so high at the moment. The problems of Greece and other peripheral euro zone countries remain, and can raise their ugly heads in Q1 2014 similar to recent years. In addition, USD is expected to strengthen in 2014 with the Fed should start rolling tapered ball after making the first cut last Wednesday. Therefore, we need to see a strong fundamental developments for EUR / USD to foster greater heights going forward, and now it is hard to imagine that happening in the next few months. ECB may yet pull another rabbit out of his hat to solve the problems of the eurozone once and for all, but possible solutions that have been thrown around the relevant liquidity measures (another round of LTRO) and / or the introduction negative rate - the two that lead weaker EUR, not harder, making the long-term probability of EUR / USD rally even lower.

that said, it should be noted that bulls EUR / USD remains strong, prices have managed to stay afloat despite S & P downgrading EU debt to AA +. Therefore, traders should not simply any short EUR / USD at the moment and hope for the best. Again, this bullish sentiment will only work in the long term if speculators are rewarded with upbeat news finally coming through, without which bearish retaliation may end up even bigger than the rally and we can have a quick sell-off on our hands in the future. Bottomline? Stay bear patients

Links :.
Gold Technicals - Bullish Pullback Seen But Bears Firmly In Play
NZD / USD Technical - bearish below 0.82 but do not expect Landslide
FX week Europe - European Union on the naughty list S & P downgraded to AA +

This article is only for general information purposes . It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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