EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR / USD was one of the biggest winners during the hours of Asia yesterday, but all the nothingness to turn bullish bravado as prices traded lower later in the European session and US, staying in a narrow band between 1.3695 and 1.3710. To be fair, EUR / USD was not the only currency pair where the bulls have failed; other conventional risk currency pairs GBP / USD, AUD / USD and NZD / USD traded all down as well, and the extent of their losses were much larger - 3 currency pairs traded below the opening levels. Moreover, even if EUR / USD gains sleek, prices are not able to stay in the black, suggesting that EUR / USD bulls may just be that much stronger than the rest of short-term currency .

timetable

Another good bullish factor goes for EUR / USD for now is that prices have stayed most time above 1.37. Today we have seen prices pushed below 1.37, but prices have since recovered. As such, even though technicals suggest that a push towards 1,368 is possible after the failure to break 1.3715 and bearish break of the trend line rising prices have a good chance of staying afloat around 1 , 37 mark, opening the possibility of a push 1.3715 once more.

Daily chart

Daily Chart is less optimistic, as the inability to move beyond 1.37 suggests conclusively that a top may be in place, which opens a lower back movement with an ultimate downside target below 1348 that the downward trend that began in late December 2013 will be back in the game. stochastic readings agree with Stoch curve already deeply overbought. In addition, it should be noted that there is a divergence between prices and Stoch peaks, suggesting that the current bullish recovery from early February may be too aggressive, increasing the likelihood of a downturn.

Looking at the calendar of economic news, there is no major European economic news that could fuel further gains in EUR / USD. As such, the only reason why EUR / USD may possibly go higher going forward would be inherent bullishness and technical pressures. While EUR / USD has done better than other currencies, it should be noted that yesterday was a "risk on" day globally which saw global equity indices from Asia and Europe climbing any higher (Bank holiday in the US). Therefore, failure to see gains in risk currencies as a block is disconcerting, and we can conclude that there is a bearish sentiment most important work (possibly related to the strength of the dollar), which can still drag EUR / USD lower.

Links:
GBP / USD - slight losses inflation indicators Markets Eye UK
USD / CAD - Holidays rangebound trade
USD / JPY - gains Japanese GDP dollar Dips

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR / USD was one of the biggest winners during the hours of Asia yesterday, but all the nothingness to turn bullish bravado as prices traded lower later in the European session and US, staying in a narrow band between 1.3695 and 1.3710. To be fair, EUR / USD was not the only currency pair where the bulls have failed; other conventional risk currency pairs GBP / USD, AUD / USD and NZD / USD traded all down as well, and the extent of their losses were much larger - 3 currency pairs traded below the opening levels. Moreover, even if EUR / USD gains sleek, prices are not able to stay in the black, suggesting that EUR / USD bulls may just be that much stronger than the rest of short-term currency .

timetable

Another good bullish factor goes for EUR / USD for now is that prices have stayed most time above 1.37. Today we have seen prices pushed below 1.37, but prices have since recovered. As such, even though technicals suggest that a push towards 1,368 is possible after the failure to break 1.3715 and bearish break of the trend line rising prices have a good chance of staying afloat around 1 , 37 mark, opening the possibility of a push 1.3715 once more.

Daily chart

Daily Chart is less optimistic, as the inability to move beyond 1.37 suggests conclusively that a top may be in place, which opens a lower back movement with an ultimate downside target below 1348 that the downward trend that began in late December 2013 will be back in the game. stochastic readings agree with Stoch curve already deeply overbought. In addition, it should be noted that there is a divergence between prices and Stoch peaks, suggesting that the current bullish recovery from early February may be too aggressive, increasing the likelihood of a downturn.

Looking at the calendar of economic news, there is no major European economic news that could fuel further gains in EUR / USD. As such, the only reason why EUR / USD may possibly go higher going forward would be inherent bullishness and technical pressures. While EUR / USD has done better than other currencies, it should be noted that yesterday was a "risk on" day globally which saw global equity indices from Asia and Europe climbing any higher (Bank holiday in the US). Therefore, failure to see gains in risk currencies as a block is disconcerting, and we can conclude that there is a bearish sentiment most important work (possibly related to the strength of the dollar), which can still drag EUR / USD lower.

Links:
GBP / USD - slight losses inflation indicators Markets Eye UK
USD / CAD - Holidays rangebound trade
USD / JPY - gains Japanese GDP dollar Dips

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Read More : EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR/USD Technicals – Staying Above 1.37 Despite Bearish Setback

EUR / USD was one of the biggest winners during the hours of Asia yesterday, but all the nothingness to turn bullish bravado as prices traded lower later in the European session and US, staying in a narrow band between 1.3695 and 1.3710. To be fair, EUR / USD was not the only currency pair where the bulls have failed; other conventional risk currency pairs GBP / USD, AUD / USD and NZD / USD traded all down as well, and the extent of their losses were much larger - 3 currency pairs traded below the opening levels. Moreover, even if EUR / USD gains sleek, prices are not able to stay in the black, suggesting that EUR / USD bulls may just be that much stronger than the rest of short-term currency .

timetable

Another good bullish factor goes for EUR / USD for now is that prices have stayed most time above 1.37. Today we have seen prices pushed below 1.37, but prices have since recovered. As such, even though technicals suggest that a push towards 1,368 is possible after the failure to break 1.3715 and bearish break of the trend line rising prices have a good chance of staying afloat around 1 , 37 mark, opening the possibility of a push 1.3715 once more.

Daily chart

Daily Chart is less optimistic, as the inability to move beyond 1.37 suggests conclusively that a top may be in place, which opens a lower back movement with an ultimate downside target below 1348 that the downward trend that began in late December 2013 will be back in the game. stochastic readings agree with Stoch curve already deeply overbought. In addition, it should be noted that there is a divergence between prices and Stoch peaks, suggesting that the current bullish recovery from early February may be too aggressive, increasing the likelihood of a downturn.

Looking at the calendar of economic news, there is no major European economic news that could fuel further gains in EUR / USD. As such, the only reason why EUR / USD may possibly go higher going forward would be inherent bullishness and technical pressures. While EUR / USD has done better than other currencies, it should be noted that yesterday was a "risk on" day globally which saw global equity indices from Asia and Europe climbing any higher (Bank holiday in the US). Therefore, failure to see gains in risk currencies as a block is disconcerting, and we can conclude that there is a bearish sentiment most important work (possibly related to the strength of the dollar), which can still drag EUR / USD lower.

Links:
GBP / USD - slight losses inflation indicators Markets Eye UK
USD / CAD - Holidays rangebound trade
USD / JPY - gains Japanese GDP dollar Dips

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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NZD/USD Technicals – Bullish Above 0.8525

NZD/USD Technicals – Bullish Above 0.8525

"risk off" movement yesterday during the US session dragged classic "risk currencies" such as AUD / USD and EUR / USD lower. NZD / USD was not sparred with lower prices from a high of 0.8605 to a low of 0.85715. that said, the bulls stood pretty well, limiting losses NZD / USD compared to its counterparts, where prices are currently trading below the American closing levels on Wednesday.

Price is currently remain above 0.8525, the level at which prices reached after RBNZ rate hike yesterday. staying above this level key, pressure bullish overall remains intact and we could see prices difficult 0.856 resistance again . stochastic indicator agrees with Stoch curve currently in a bull cycle, which promotes the continued upward movement.

Considering that prices are currently higher despite growing European session as showing off bearish sentiment (Dax -0.64% -0.28% FTSE 100 and CAC 40 -0.45% at time of writing), it there are good reasons to believe that prices will at least remain strong, although the US session proves to be bearish once again.

More Links:
GBP / USD - Pound Recovers and Flirts with 1.67
USD / CAD - US Dollar loses ground despite positive employment data
USD / JPY - Yen Up As manafacturing Impresses Japanese data

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/INR – No Cheers As India Election Begins

USD/INR – No Cheers As India Election Begins

Today is the first day of the largest election in the world where over 814 million Indian citizens will hold a vote of vote that will determine the next government for the next 5 years. This election was hyped up as that would change the fortunes of India, high inflation and lowering production hit the developing countries for the past 5 years, and rightly or wrongly voters are hoping to see a change in the administration believing that their economic fortunes are changing.

This hope for a better future Rupee stimulated and main stock index Sensex higher in recent months, as traders and investors are optimistic following the preliminary polls favor opposition party BJP. Some polls even suggest that the party can even get an absolute majority, without the need for a coalition. If this is to happen, it is likely that the new government will be able to get laws passed so much easier and allowing the economy to recover in a much faster and more efficient (assuming the BJP does indeed turn out to be as pro business as touted).

timetable

However, the reaction of the market certainly does not reflect the optimism / hope that we can expected with the beginning of the 6 weeks long elections. Sensex is currently trading 0.62% lower in Indian Rupee has also weakened against the dollar. the great global trend can be attributed to risk-off this fall, but it is not true that the Asian indices are generally stable, with most indices paring opening losses for the rest of the day. Price action on the Sensex was the opposite - prices actually started higher but pushed lower thereafter, suggesting that the decline is due to own loss of India rather than large risk trends. The same charge can be imposed on the rupee when other major currencies are actually trading stronger against the dollar, instead of weaker.

What does this mean?

It is possible that this is just a blip and a small case market to buy the rumor and sell the news. However, if the weak Rupee Sensex and continues for the next days, we could see a deeper correction of the gains that have been won in recent months as the market sentiment about the election may have changed.

Short-term technicals favor a weak rupee and continued. Prices appear to be trading within a rising channel and we could see a push towards Canal Top. Recent high oscillation around the ceiling 60.4 consolidation seen last Friday can still offer resistance. Since the stochastic readings are currently in the overbought region, the probability of USD / INR lower bounce becomes higher. However, if prices continue to pull in the short term and grow above 60.4 without breaking a sweat, the probability of a change in sentiment on the elections increases, and further gains in USD / INR can be expected.

Links:
WTI Crude - 100.5 Critical To S / T Direction
Nikkei 225 - Remain Bullish Ahead Of BOJ Despite Friday Slide
Gold Technicals - stay above 1300

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EURUSD – Pennant Points to Further Gains

EURUSD – Pennant Points to Further Gains

Consolidation of the pair since Friday morning, may suggest that the bulls are fighting to gain any momentum and once again, the strength of dollar prevail. While this may be the case in the longer term, I think we might see some other movements in the short-term rise.

The big test facing the pair at the moment is the 50 day simple moving average (SMA), which capped any upward movement for almost a year, most recently last week. While on the previous couple of occasions, which was met with strong selling pressure, on this occasion, it seems to hold its own, suggesting that it might not be so easy this time

The 4 hour chart potentially support this view. The consolidation over the past 48 hours led to the formation of a pennant, which is typically a continuation pattern. A break through the top of the flame suggests that a break of the 50 day SMA will follow as one of the advantages of these configurations is that it offers potential target prices.

In this case, taking the size of the movement to the flame and approach to project above the escape, which would take good price au above the 50 day SMA. It would actually take us just past 1.11, which may suggest that a break above the recent trading range of 1.05 -. 1.1050, although I would be very careful around 1.1050 that these projections are not always perfect

It should also be noted that the 50-period SMA crossing above the 0-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which is a sign of bullish momentum change. A break above the flame and 50-day SMA could complement it and make the graphics seem more optimistic. Of course, the ultimate test of bias would come around 1.1050.

Helping to drive this movement is reporting today that the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has decided to overhaul its negotiating team to work on the reform package with lenders in the country. Indeed, he demoted Yanis Varoufakis who disagreed with the finance ministers of the euro area for months, culminating Friday with seemingly completely lose their patience with him.

This is considered a positive step for the negotiations and already talking about Greece revise its reform list and the suspension of minimum wage plans. An agreement on the reforms, which would provide € 7.2 billion in bailout funds that Greece needs to avoid default, should support the euro, which has been overwhelmed by all the uncertainty in recent months.

I want to emphasize that an escape is required for this to look more optimistic, which is obviously not guaranteed. Last week, the net position of noncommercial euro has become increasingly short, suggesting the single currency is still under a lot of pressure.

At the same time, the OANDA clients have become somewhat less net short EURUSD today, the book is now 60.66% Short, down 62.13% Friday.

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AUD/USD – Trying to Stay in Touch of 0.75 Level

AUD/USD – Trying to Stay in Touch of 0.75 Level

AUD / USD - Wednesday, July 8, 2015

The Australian dollar has not had his best week down sharply above the key 0.77 level to a new six-year low below 0.74 over the past 24 hours. The AUD / USD currently trades around the 0.7450 and try to stay within range of the level 0.75. Some time last week the AUD / USD tested the key support level at 0.76 and enjoyed a solid support before it failed. Throughout last week, the Australian dollar began to feel some selling pressure from the level of 0.77, and his eyes were firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76. There are a few weeks, the AUD / USD fell sharply lower below 0.77 but found strong support for long-term support level at 0.76. This level has provided strong support throughout most of this year, so it is quite significant that it was strongly broken.

there

A few weeks ago, he made a greater leap of below 0.77 until the last three weeks, but he ran straight into the key 0.7850 resistance level, which played this role more time this year. All this time, he also spent most of his time fairly stable operations around the 0.7750 level while enjoying a strong support 0.77. In the last month, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to exert downward pressure on selling the AUD / USD. During this same period, it benefited from rock solid support from the level of support in the long term to 0.76 that allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion.

Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fall sharply to a four months above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD has been in a long-term trend solid medium to having broken through the 0.7850 key level and reached four months of high above 0.8150. For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / USD on July 7 at 23:40 GMT 0.7445 H: 0, 7501 L: 0.7398

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7400	-	-	0.7850	0.8150	-

During the first hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, the dollar Australia is trading in a narrow range around 0.7450 right after recently falling sharply to a low of six years below 0.74. Current range :. right trading around 0.7450

Other levels in both directions

• The following :. 0.7400

• Above :. 0.7850 and 0.8150

Open Ratios position OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the percentage left (blue) shows long positions ;. percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD fell below 60 % as the AUD / USD fell to a new six-year low below 0.74. The trader sentiment is in favor of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 11:01 p.m. (Tue) UK RICS House Price Balance (June)
• 11:50 p.m. (Tue) JP Money Supply M2 (June)
• 11:50 p.m. JP Key machinery orders (May)
• 24:30 CA construction permits (May)
• JP Economy Watchers Survey (June)

* All times are GMT release of

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Looking for Support at 0.77 Again

AUD/USD – Looking for Support at 0.77 Again

AUD / USD - Monday, June 15, 2015

Finally on last week, the Australian dollar eased lower resistance in the 0.7850 key level but met reasonable support to 0.77, where it is currently trading above. In recent weeks, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to exert downward pressure on selling the AUD / USD. During this same period, it received strong support from the rock the long term support level at 0.76 which allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion. Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fell sharply four-month high above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions.

The recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD was in a strong long-term trend medium to having broken by the key 0.7850 level and reached the top four month above 0.8150. For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels.

The key level remains now 0.76 and it will be interesting to see how the support at this level can hold and stop the trend of sharp decline in the AUD / USD has experienced in recent weeks. The 4 hour chart below shows how constant the recent decline was, but also how significant the level of 0.76 to be able to temporarily halt the decline.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / 14 USD June at 23:55 GMT 0.7730 H: L 0.7754: 0.7724

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7700	0.70	-	0.7850	0.8150	-

During the first hours of the Asian session Monday, the dollar Australia is easing back towards the support level at 0.77 after having executed even once in resistance around 0.7850. Current range :. trading just above 0.77

Other levels in both directions

• The following :. 0.7700 and 0.70

• Above :. 0.7850 and 0.8150

Open Ratios position OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the left percentage (blue) shows long positions, the percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD fell below 60% as the AUD / USD eases back to the support level of 0.77. . The trader sentiment is strongly in favor of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 9:00 Trade Balance EU (its) (April)
• 12:30 manufacturers sales of CA (Apr)
• 12:30 US Empire State Survey (June)
• 1:15 p.m. US capacity utilization (May)
• 13: US Industrial Production 15 (May)
• 2:00 p.m. Builders NAHB survey US (June)
• 8:00 p.m. US net long-term TICS flows (April)

* All GMT release time

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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AUD/USD – Consolidating in Narrow Range Below 0.74

AUD/USD – Consolidating in Narrow Range Below 0.74

AUD / USD - Friday, July 24, 2015

The Australian dollar sharply in the past month that led to a new six-year low below 0.7350 earlier this week. He is presently trading near the 0.7350 level looking at the point of drifting a little lower. For the best part of two weeks, the AUD / USD has traded in a narrow range between 0.74 and 0.75 with the former providing reasonable support and the latter providing a strong resistance during this time. He was counting on the support of 0.74 and test that level but it was broken and the AUD / USD has been consolidating around the 0.74 level for the past week. Just a few weeks the Australian dollar began to feel some selling pressure from the level of 0.77 and had his eyes firmly focused on the long term support level at 0.76.

In the first half of June the Australian dollar jumped more than 0.77 lower to a three-week high, but he ran right to resistance at 0.7850 key, which played this role more time this year. All this time, he also spent most of his time fairly stable operations around the 0.7750 level while enjoying a strong support 0.77. Over the past two months, the 0.7850 resistance level has played a major role and continues to exert downward pressure on selling the AUD / USD. During this same period, it benefited from rock solid support from the level of support in the long term to 0.76 that allowed him to bounce back strongly to more than 0.78 to more than one occasion.

Throughout the second half of May, the Australian dollar fall sharply to a four months above 0.8150 to the level of key support at 0.76. This level was a significant level for a couple of months and has supported the Australian dollar on multiple occasions. This recent price action has been a significant reversal, because there is not so long, the AUD / USD has been in a long-term trend solid medium to having broken through the 0.7850 key level and reached four months of high above 0.8150. For most of this year, the Australian dollar has traded in a wide trading range between support at 0.76 and resistance around 0.7850. Earlier this year in February this range was narrower with the highest level of support 0.77. Throughout this period he has had reasonable swings back and forth between the two key levels with very few excursions beyond the levels.

(daily chart / 4 hourly chart below)

AUD / USD on July 23 at 23:55 UTC 0.7358 H: 0, 7417 L: 0.7352

AUD / USD technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
0.7350	-	-	0.7500	0.7850	0.8150

During the first hours of the Asian session on Friday, the Australian dollar is trying to stay in contact with the 0.74 level after spending the last days of consolidating and trading around that level. Current range :. right trading around 0.7350

Other levels in both directions

• Below: 0.7350

• Above :. 0.7500, 0.7850 and 0.8150

[ouvrirRatiosdeposition OANDA

(shows the ratio of long short positions vs held AUD / USD between all OANDA clients. the percentage left (blue) shows long positions ;. percentage right (orange) shows short positions)

the long position report AUD / USD rose above 60% of the AUD / USD has eased following a six-year low near 0.7350. The trader sentiment is in favor of long positions.

Economic Releases

• 8:00 flash PMI Composite EU (July)
• 08: 00 flash manufacturing PMI of EU (July)
• 8:00 PMI flash services EU (July)
• 1:45 p.m. US flash PMI Manufacturing (July)
• 2:00 p.m. US Home Sales new (June)

* All times are GMT release of

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EURUSD – Seeking Confirmation of Monday’s Break

EURUSD – Seeking Confirmation of Monday’s Break

We are seeing a rebound in the dollar after a good start in the wake of comments voting member of the FOMC William Dudley, who said that a rate increase in September seems less convincing.

Although this is not necessarily a surprise given the extreme levels of market volatility as of late concern and increasingly in emerging markets and how it can impact the US , recognizing it hit the dollar.

the end of the week will focus on the Fed with a number of political leaders due to speak, including Vice President Stanley Fischer Symposium in Jackson Hole. Similar recognitions from other policymakers would increase the rate much less likely in September, bringing the home in December. As noted Dudley, there is a desire to raise rates this year if possible.

The euro had broken below 1.14 against the dollar before the comments from Dudley, wiping out the gains made during the rally on Monday which was driven by the unwinding carry trades. The rapid reversal of this rally could suggest that the feeling is not as optimistic that Monday's motion suggests.

That said, the pair is still close below 1.14 and a failure to do so would effectively act as confirmation of the break, in effect lending credibility to the initiative Monday.

in addition to the momentum still seems to be firmly on the rise, suggesting the bulls are not done yet. A break of the Stochastic trend line may be an early sign that the momentum is moving.

Finally, the 4 hour chart also looks very bullish with the rear traction on both days fall forming a wedge, a bullish formation. A break above it could trigger another strong rally high.

The tools above and others can be found in OANDA Forex Labs.

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GBPJPY – Key Fib Could Offer Sterling Respite

GBPJPY – Key Fib Could Offer Sterling Respite

There has been a difficult start to the week for the British pound, the in / out referendum on the EU to be officially confirmed for June 23 and a number of key conservative politicians throw their support to "leave" campaign.

The most recent of these was the mayor of London and possible future Conservative leader Boris Johnson, the announcement that sent the pound tumbling again.

sterling fell to the lowest level since November 2013 against the yen at the beginning of the week and other losses could follow in the coming weeks.

I noted above that, with careful price projection of the head and shoulders neckline break was reached, the most aggressive projection - about 153 - will now eyes. With the pair now headed south again, this research increasingly likely

As also mentioned that ( OANDA MP. - Sterling pounded CPI Low (Video) ), the pair faces a key test first around 156.20. Not only is this level before support and resistance - in May 2013 and between September and November of the same year -. It is also the 50% retracement of the September movement in 2011 bottom in June 2015 highs

As we approach this level, it will be interesting to see if the bullish divergences appear, with the stochastic and MACD low higher display and price action making lower lows. This could provide an early warning that the pair can function in the holder here.

Of course, as always it is a secondary indicator to price action, so I would also like to see a reversal pattern occurs before I become less bearish . The bullish divergence simply warns of possible occurance.

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EURUSD – Trend Line Support Under Pressure Again

EURUSD – Trend Line Support Under Pressure Again

EURUSD has been under considerable pressure of late, driven by divergent monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed, which both considering acting December

the result was the pair falling from 1.15 to 1.09 in just a few weeks he seems to have found some support for the ascending trend line - low .. 13 March

Since find support here, the pair saw a minor correction, but is once again attempt to break lower, a move that would bring May and July low into consideration , around 1.08. This is a very important support level for the pair and a break of it could prompt another considerable move lower.

In this state, the continued trend line support to provide support for the pair, although there are signs that the bears have not given up. The most recent 4 hours candle is a very irregular, though smaller, marabuzo candle and the current is still to break through the line marabuzo.

Momentum appears to be growing as the pair is closing in on the trend line, which could not be said to the first request.

It is also noted that during the most recent rally or correction on Friday, the pair failed to move above Wednesday's highs, a sign that the bears are in control. That said, this could still be the case in a consolidation as well, although in many cases, consolidation would also bearish on.

As you can see in the order book of OANDA, open orders customer suggests 1.09 is a key level of interest and as the purchase orders are slightly more orders sale.

to get access to the order book OANDA and all our other trading tools, visit OANDA Forex Labs.

NB There is a lot of data to the US to be released and Federal Reserve policy makers talking between now and Friday could have a big impact on this pair. It is worthwhile to monitor the economic calendar so you know when these releases are due.

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ZAR/JPY Wobbles!

ZAR/JPY Wobbles!

ZAR / JPY worried perched on the support before the municipal elections.

Tomorrow, the vote of South Africa in the local elections. Although the elections themselves are on a local level, which will be closely monitored by the South Africans and international investors as well, is the model of voting. The ANC since the end of apartheid has consistently questioned above 62% at all levels. Dissatisfaction with the regime of President Zuma and the country's economic management has increased.
A big boost against the ANC will give momentum to reformers within the ANC who are casting a nervous eye to the 20149 federal election. It will also be positively considered the economic point of view, it will definitely give a boost to the reformists within government and without.

Conversely, a better than expected ANC would have the opposite effect. The power of President Zuma will be seen as consolidated, and much needed reforms will be much less likely to occur. Expect investors to take a dimmer view of the second result as well and perhaps see the ZAR come under pressure. (USD / ZAR higher)

This uncertainty is unfortunate in its schedule for carry traders have long suffered. Coming as it does after a disappointing reaction to both the BoJ decisions and a lukewarm response to the LDP's stimulus package. JGB was a strong selloff yesterday and rising yields and the USD saw above / JPY sold hard during the week. Touching 100.60 this morning in Asia.

This downward pressure put on one of the favorite carry trades there, ZAR / JPY, now sitting on both weekly and daily support.

Weekly support comes by 7.1860, which is a high-low multiple previous / (denoted by the red dashed line). A weekly close under here to open a passage to the next bracket 6.9150 from a technical point of view.

Things are much better on the daily chart with either ZAR / JPY has broken the 0 DMA at 7.2810 and sitting just above the 100 DMA 7, 1760. A daily close below here opens a test of the top of the Ichimoku cloud at 7.0915. Resistance is at 7.2810 (0 DMA) and a multiple well anchored high on candles every day at 7.4450.

This is without doubt clear that the next 48 hours will be those for carry traders nervous on that cross! confluent events gather in the rather unfortunate timing.

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USD/INR Technicals – Bearish Breakout On Both Short/Long Term

USD/INR Technicals – Bearish Breakout On Both Short/Long Term

rupee bounced back yesterday, trading under the 61.0 support a more important key below the swing low last Friday - where USD / INR rally this week started. By trading below 61.0, the rally was invalidated, and the short-term pressure is downward. When considering that USD is actually trading mostly higher against other major currencies, it is interesting that rupee managed to strengthen against the greenback as the rest of the world actually bought USD following the postponement of a US defect 6 weeks.

The reason for this seems to be building talks between the government and global banks to include Indian sovereign bonds in global bond indices. If the Indian government get what they want, the Indian foreign purchases of bonds increases significantly, which could bring $ 20 - 40 billion entries in India each year, contributing instead of the leak foreign investment (FI) that was the main culprit for the slide in 2013. Rupee these new receive a positive reaction for most sea Rupee traders - a very good sign as it suggests that we may even see a temporary slowdown the output of foreign funds for the moment that these FI may just want to keep their money in India to buy bonds Rupee when they are able to do so.

timetable

from the technical point of view we do not see grow downward more significant after the break 60, 9 resistance, price negotiation between the side 60.7 to 60.9 most of the Asian session. Nevertheless, the overall bias is bearish with prices 60.9 tests a few times but ultimately failed. Stochastic supports a downward thrust with the curve Stoch face "resistance" around the level of 55.0. If the curve Stoch indeed head low with USD / INR break 60.70, we could see a continuation to head to the round number 60.0 price.

Weekly Chart

weekly chart is very bearish at present, as the latest sell-off may be interpreted as bearish rejection Top Channel, which helps to affirm the escape (or failure) of the Channel. However, it is unlikely to be reached on Channel Bottom is bearish alone the price has actually came out more than 10% and a significant withdrawal is late. Stochastic indicator gives weight to this assertion with values ​​close to the oversold region, with the curve Stoch likely to hit the oversold region when the price reaches 59.0 -. the lower end of the consolidation area in July

Basically, nothing has changed much in economic prospects in India. Inflation continues to roar, to September Wholesale prices are expected to rise nearly 6.10% increase in August due to imports of more expensive food and fuel. On the other hand, it is expected industrial production and overall economic activity to decline. IMF recently slash growth forecasts for India to 3.8%, much lower than the previous 5.6% outlook, the biggest drop among all the damage. With a weakening economy and continuing inflation, it is likely that financial institutions will continue to leave the country, and may even accelerate when US straighten their disorder.

Seasonal India tend to see huge gold imports during the month of October for their Deepavali celebrations, where gold is typically given as gifts. Since the price of gold has decreased significantly since September, demand for gold may be even greater, and offset the costly taxes and restrictions that RBI has done to limit Rupee outputs. Therefore, traders should not just assume that it will be a bearish smooth road for USD / INR before

Links:
GBP / USD - Based on support. Level at 1.5950
AUD / USD - remains low with solid support at 0.94
EUR / USD - found strong support at 1.35

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/SGD Technicals – Bearish Under 1.257 Towards 1.242

USD/SGD Technicals – Bearish Under 1.257 Towards 1.242

The strong uptrend that began 19 seems to have stalled, with a high potential of about 1,257. This rally can be considered a technical decline in the post FOMC drop, and given this context, the failure of the bulls to fill the entire space is a strong affirmation that overall bearishness is not over yet, and we could yet see prices moving ad after FOMC low of 1.2422 and potentially beyond.

timetable

However, before we assume that the bear will simply push lower to here, we must look further confirmation that the short term immediate pressure will have the legs to run. Stochastic indicator is not really useful here because it seems to be a discrepancy between the last 2 pics Stoch and prices, suggesting that the signal during the down cycle may be impaired. In addition, the current readings are around the previous low, so it will not be surprising to see both stoch curve and the price level to turn higher from here. Preferably, the price needs to break the flexible support of 1253 as confirmation, but given the current levels Stoch, it is likely that the curve would oversold Stoch then, with the bearish momentum still in doubt. Therefore, a better scenario would actually see prices rebounded on 1253 first but remaining under the 1254 intraday resistance, allowing bears to rest and possibly more space to push lower.

Table Daily

daily chart is bearish, with the failure to break 1,257 more significant in relation to the card short term. Stochastic readings are in the midst of a bull market now, but Stoch curve tapered flat and threatens to shoot lower. Precedence say that readings can optionally form a peak here as we have seen other inflection points around the level of 50.0 before. Similarly, the importance of 1242 is higher by the daily chart as was the ceiling and Swing Low go as far as February 2013. As a result, prices are waiting to be able to bounce back slightly from there, even if the overall pressure is extremely bearish.

Interestingly, USD / SGD is not really react to the recent USD strength seen in the last two days, suggesting that SGD is inherently bullish. However, there are no strong reasons for strengthening SGD. MAS central bank should not change anything in the October review of monetary policy, while Singapore's economy is not at its highest point, with a drop in exports and industrial production through a season turbulence. Therefore, it is clear that technicals is to have a field day currently, influencing the price action considerably. If this is true, then the probability of 1257 holds and reach 1,242 increases, and we could even see a further bearish acceleration if the USD begin to weaken

Links :.
NZD / USD Technicals - Remain Under 0.83
Rhyme And Reason Not A Concern EURO Dollar Gold
Gold Technicals - The rise on concerns the US Budget

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Slight Bearish Potential But Mostly Supported Post NFP

EUR/USD Technicals – Slight Bearish Potential But Mostly Supported Post NFP

The stronger than expected US non-farm jobs last Friday increased speculation that the Fed Thinning current QE stimulus program. This led stronger USD and pulled EUR / USD lower, pulling prices down to 1.3318 Friday.

Time Table

However, the decline on Friday is a dwarf compared to the large market Thursday after the rate cut by the ECB, where prices have fallen from above 1.35 to under 1.33. However, prices have recovered significantly, suggesting that support for EUR / USD is strong, and even implies that prices can be displayed if a sideways trend for lower rates. The same could be said about the post NFP reaction where prices are negotiated mainly between 1335 -. 1337

Nevertheless, the overall pressure remains bearish, and as long as prices remain below the descending trend line that is still in play, we can expect a slight technical pressure that may be able to push the price towards 1,330. bearish target below 1330 may be more difficult considering that stochastic readings will definitely be in the oversold region when this happens, which promotes a rebound scenario that can open more upside target should the downward trend line being broken. Whereas the decline in the ECB's surprise rate failed to breach 1.33, it becomes even less likely than 1.33 based on the current dynamic fracture will be able to do the job.

Weekly Chart

long-term chart is currently in favor of a bearish move, with operations 1.37 resistance level coupled with the bearish rejection off the trend line and the downward cycle of signal strength Stochastic adding to the bearish momentum. However, it should be noted that prices remain higher than the January opening levels, hence the overall bias should remain bullish that would make current bearish sell-off as a mere correction. Nevertheless, there are no signs that the current bearish momentum is reversing or even slowing down. Therefore, if prices manage to break 1.33, a move towards 1.31 is still possible, even if it is simply "corrective", as would be the next important support level. Beyond that will probably be based on this singular movement only as stochastic readings will likely be in the oversold region

Links :.
Week FX Americas - Jobs Here, Jobs There, Jobs Everywhere
week FX Europe - ECB pulled the trigger and kept the Ajar Door
FX week Asia - Commodities focus on Chinese reforms expected Plenum

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Read More : EUR/USD Technicals – Slight Bearish Potential But Mostly Supported Post NFP

EUR/USD Technicals – No Immediate Bearish Threat Below 1.363

EUR/USD Technicals – No Immediate Bearish Threat Below 1.363

No major development for EUR / USD. Prices traded mainly from 1.36 to 1.365 yesterday despite strong economic figures from Germany in the form of better than expected retail sales and more high unemployment change. This and the "risk on" global appetite seen in European session and US, where S & P 500 finally recorded a gain in 2014 suggest that the overall downward pressure on EUR / USD remains strong.

Time Table

Given this context, the probability of price to break the level of 1363 resistance is now lower, and a retest of 1.36 and even recent low oscillation of 1357 is possible. That said, it should be noted that the bulls have been rather resilient in the last 2 days. In addition, the curve Stochastic upper tip after rebounding from the "support" of 30.0, suggesting that an upward thrust to 1365 can not be ruled out.

FOMC meeting minutes of the day may result in increased volatility and, therefore, it will not be surprising to see prices swing wildly between 1.36 to 1.365 despite the bearish bias. There is even the possibility that the wild swings may overflow to the broader trading range of 1.357 to 1.3675 and may even exceed the post announcement should slightly strong knee jerk responses are seen. Therefore, traders should be aware of the high probability of "false breakouts" and conservative traders may want to wait until the dust settled before engaging in both directions.

Table Daily

daily chart shows the baby steps of Triple Top pattern awaiting confirmation bearish rejection 1363. Current candlestick pattern is promising with a potential Evening Star bearish reversal on the way. However, stochastic readings actually favor a bullish push towards 1.38 again with Stoch lower curve. Also, if we look at the record low that was formed in the oversold region, there is a clear divergence between price levels and levels of Stoch, adding more upward pressure because it suggests that the recent decline of 1 38 can be a little more aggressive.

the best way to solve this ness "oversold" would be the price continues to trade sideways in 1363 for an extended period of time will allow Stoch retreating more and leave Bears take profits before launching push down the next. Will it be really possible? Of course not, but from a technical point of view, the more time spent below 1.36, the probability of a stronger downward extension increases.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Read More : EUR/USD Technicals – No Immediate Bearish Threat Below 1.363

EUR/USD Technicals – No Immediate Bearish Threat Below 1.363

EUR/USD Technicals – No Immediate Bearish Threat Below 1.363

No major development for EUR / USD. Prices traded mainly from 1.36 to 1.365 yesterday despite strong economic figures from Germany in the form of better than expected retail sales and more high unemployment change. This and the "risk on" global appetite seen in European session and US, where S & P 500 finally recorded a gain in 2014 suggest that the overall downward pressure on EUR / USD remains strong.

Time Table

Given this context, the probability of price to break the level of 1363 resistance is now lower, and a retest of 1.36 and even recent low oscillation of 1357 is possible. That said, it should be noted that the bulls have been rather resilient in the last 2 days. In addition, the curve Stochastic upper tip after rebounding from the "support" of 30.0, suggesting that an upward thrust to 1365 can not be ruled out.

FOMC meeting minutes of the day may result in increased volatility and, therefore, it will not be surprising to see prices swing wildly between 1.36 to 1.365 despite the bearish bias. There is even the possibility that the wild swings may overflow to the broader trading range of 1.357 to 1.3675 and may even exceed the post announcement should slightly strong knee jerk responses are seen. Therefore, traders should be aware of the high probability of "false breakouts" and conservative traders may want to wait until the dust settled before engaging in both directions.

Table Daily

daily chart shows the baby steps of Triple Top pattern awaiting confirmation bearish rejection 1363. Current candlestick pattern is promising with a potential Evening Star bearish reversal on the way. However, stochastic readings actually favor a bullish push towards 1.38 again with Stoch lower curve. Also, if we look at the record low that was formed in the oversold region, there is a clear divergence between price levels and levels of Stoch, adding more upward pressure because it suggests that the recent decline of 1 38 can be a little more aggressive.

the best way to solve this ness "oversold" would be the price continues to trade sideways in 1363 for an extended period of time will allow Stoch retreating more and leave Bears take profits before launching push down the next. Will it be really possible? Of course not, but from a technical point of view, the more time spent below 1.36, the probability of a stronger downward extension increases.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/JPY – Onward Towards 2013 Highs But Japan Economic Woes Remain

USD/JPY – Onward Towards 2013 Highs But Japan Economic Woes Remain

USD / JPY breached 103.0 yesterday following rumors that the BOJ will be looking to increase current stimulus . Governor Kuroda was seen yesterday, saying that the central bank will maintain its commitment to achieve the inflation target of 2% in 2 years, fueling speculation that BOJ may even go beyond the purchase of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and buy riskier products such as marketing actions related funds to achieve its objective. How this will benefit Japanese economy is a huge question mark, like the purchase of products linked to the stock market will drive prices higher assets - BOJ may give the 2% inflation, he really wants. However, how this will then inspire highest production / consumption that is necessary to drive the Japanese economy is sketchy.

Share price inflation (besides Nikkei 225 is currently higher at 6 months) does not mean anything, and Japan should have already learned this lesson from the US, where the term "QE" was born. US stock prices are at record levels, but unemployment rates remain high, with the economy still about 1.1 million jobs lower than pre crisis days. Similarly, additional QE (nicknamed JQE2) BOJ will shave off some unemployment problems and the current level of consumption slowdown of Japan. Yen has indeed weakened because of the artificial liquidity in the market, but there is some evidence that consumers consume less because of inflated prices in the F & B industry - the opposite of what BOJ wants :. Full recovery of the Japanese economy

Therefore, Japanese equities are in a very precarious scenario, and we could see prices fall like a house of cards if BOJ does not address the underlying problems of economy directly. Currently prices remain buoyant and in fact largely bullish due to the fact that the Bank of Japan injected liquidity with the promise to buy more stocks indirectly (through funds related to trading). Take that away, and we are back to levels that the Japanese economy and profitability of global pre-intervetion business (without additional revenues from exports due to weaker yen) has not increased much.

Yen What then?

This is a more delicate matter in the long run. the current weak yen can be attributed to the additional liquidity BOJ, but one can not ignore the fact that the need for a safe haven currency in 2013 has been on the decline with the global stock market is going strong. The "Fear Index" Vix is ​​also close lower pre 07, lending strength to this claim. In addition, USD has strengthened significantly and is expected to further strengthen the Fed should gradually reduce QE purchases in 2014. As a result, USD / JPY uptrend will remain without BOJ action.

However, it should also be noted that the market has given huge bonuses in USD / JPY in anticipation of the BOJ Yen weaken. Therefore, if the effect of the BOJ stimulus is in question, there will be at least a few quarters of traders who may think that Yen should return to its previous strength or at least recover some of it. But if you look fundamentals - if BOJ stimulus fail to revive the economy, Japan will be sentenced to perhaps another long period of deflation / recession, and that would have a weakening impact on the Yen

Certainly it. Yen management become less obvious and therefore traders will certainly be to assess what is the market-oriented - the fundamentals of the Japanese economy, or the failure of the BOJ to weaken Yen further. long-term wise, it is likely that the price direction means going back to basics, but there is no saying how market sentiment can influence prices in the next 2 years BOJ stimulus era.

Weekly Chart

from a purely technical point of view, however, USD / JPY will face resistance in the form of 2013 beats around 103.75. Stochasic readings are also towards the mathematical limit of 100.0, which favors a bearish decline in the immediate future. For now, it appears that the bullish trend is intact, and although the price rebound of 103.75, it is possible that the price could find support from 100.5 (which may be the confluence with the rising trend line assuming a slight decline rates in the coming weeks). This fits well with the scenario where additional stimulus BOJ fail to excite the market, but instead of desperate market ends speculation that BOJ will do even more stimulus in 2014 -. One possible scenario happened in 2012 before QE3 was announced

Links:
GBP / USD - Relieves Far from two-year high at 1.6350
AUD / USD - turns and looks towards 0.0 again
EUR / USD - dropped to the key level at 1.3550

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Read More : USD/JPY – Onward Towards 2013 Highs But Japan Economic Woes Remain

USD/JPY Technicals – New 2013 Highs Once Again

USD/JPY Technicals – New 2013 Highs Once Again

Weekly Chart

BOJ should send a Christmas card for Bernanke and the Fed signed by Kuroda and Abe to express their gratitude. If they have not, a card "Happy New Year" is definitely in order that the shrinking of the Fed strengthened USD to the point that the USD / JPY managed to break previous 2013 high and is currently underway to reach 105.0. Before the Fed did this, there were serious doubts about USD / JPY will be able to break the 103.75 mark as the last series of the announcement of stimulus was most disappointing time with the market starts to lose BOJ faith in threatening to shoot higher Yen and USD / JPY lower. Without timely rescue Bernanke, it is quite possible that USD / JPY would be pushed lower and closer to 100.0 instead of where we are now.

That being said, the market is still waiting for BOJ to introduce additional stimulus 2014. If this does not materialize, it is possible that the strength of USD will be able to stem the slide. Therefore, even if a breakout is underway at the moment, do not automatically assume that an upward thrust continues to herein is a done deal.

Time Table

However, S / T leadership is certainly on the rise, with prices now pushing above the rising trend line was at stake just day before the FOMC decision. Currently we are trading above the peaks publish FOMC, suggesting that this upward thrust can have a little more legs to run. Stochastic is overbought readings, but there are still some more room to push higher over the previous base Stoch highs last week. Furthermore, there is no evidence that the bullish momentum is over, and we could even see a slight upward acceleration if the soft resistance of 108.4 broke

Links :.
AUD / USD Technicals - Soft Support Seen Versus bearish backdrop Strong
EUR / USD Technical - Bearish Pressure Intact But do not expect Slide Sudden
NZD / USD techniques - Lower Push to S / T and L / T support levels

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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USD/SGD – Uptrend Intact As SGD Continues To Weaken

USD/SGD – Uptrend Intact As SGD Continues To Weaken

The greenback continues its race against marauding emerging markets currencies and SGD is not sparred even if it is considered as a much stronger financial division from the rest of its Asian counterparts. Since the beginning of 2014, SGD weakened against USD by 0.8%, and this trend does not seem to decline with the uptrend in both the short and long term.

The reason for the upward trajectory is easy to understand - USD remains primed for further growth due to the imminent end of the stimulus plan. The improving US economy and rising US stock prices contribute to promote global institutional funds to reenter in North America again, fueling growth in USD.

Furthermore, Singapore's economic growth is under surveillance now. The housing market is cooling, which deter foreign funds to enter as foreigners account for a high percentage of purchases of private homes on the island state. Recently, it was reported that national non-oil exports (NODX) increased, but in reality, the actual number is much lower due to errors in data collection on trade. After the new revelation, analysts reassess their forecasts, and some felt that NODX for the full year 2013 would have decreased by over 5% y / y. This also means that GDP estimates will be revised downwards, which is certainly not good news for SGD has already been weakened when higher than expected numbers NODX and GDP have been published.

Recent CPI data continues downward economic situation - December CPI rose + 1.5% y / y versus analysts consensus estimate of + 2.0%. This is also at the lowest end of the forecast band by MAS Central Bank, and away from the previous month by more than 2.0%. All these points to a long-term upward trend for USD / SGD in 2014 and possibly in 2015 -. 2016 USD / SGD approach the historical average

Time Table

this morning, lower than many manufacturing HSBC Chinese PMI expected did not SGD favors either, pushing the price further to USD strengthen on haven flows. However, it should be noted that USD / SGD was already trading above 1.28, showing that the price is already bullish to start. Currently the price is trading in a corner of shrinking, and the price has recently bounced off the upper block, which opens up a potential move back towards 1.28 which is confluent with lower corner if the movement transpires in the next 12 hours or more. Stochastic readings agree with a down cycle signal just newly formed, and the fact that the bullish reaction to the weaker than the new CPI was muted suggest that S / T bullish momentum is not as strong as we think.

table Daily

daily chart also shows USD / SGD hit the top corner with stochastic readings currently deep in the overbought region. In addition, the price will face more resistance from the previous swing high seen in August 2013, which limits the potential upside and increased the probability of a bearish decline towards Bottom corner or at least around 1.27 Support whichever comes first.

Nevertheless, it should be noted that all short positions against the trend would be here, and that would present greater risks. This risk increases when one considers that there is no evidence on the daily chart that the bullish momentum is reversing. All we have is a bearish sign downturn can / should be coming soon, and it could happen perhaps 50 pips or even 100 pips. In addition, there is also no guarantee that a bear market will be able to escape completely before long-term bullish momentum returns. As such, traders should exercise extreme caution, especially since the FOMC meeting is just around the corner, and USD is bound to suffer volatility as we move towards the major risk event

links :.
NZD / USD Technicals - Bearish below 0.83 but L / T Followed by unlikely
GBP / USD - Looks threatening resistance at 1.66 Again
AUD / USD - return to Key 0.88 Level

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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EUR/USD Technicals – Stable above 1.39

EUR/USD Technicals – Stable above 1.39

EUR / USD lost down this morning but was mostly stable above 1.39 round number. By keeping above the key level, last Friday's rally remained intact and the upward pressure continues to favor a push up Thursday. However, before we all excited at the prospect of bullish EUR / USD, it is important to understand why prices still gathered to begin.

Looking at the economic calendar Friday, we can see that the economic figures for euro area exceeded the expectations or the least satisfied. Germany consumer price index came in as expected, while the number of jobs in the eurozone have improved on a Q / Q basis. Y / Y wise we continue to see a slight decline, but the -0.5% is certainly slower than the figure of -0.8% seen in the previous quarter. Across the economy of British English Channel seems to be a little better as well with growth of output construction 5.4% Y / Y after seasonal adjustments, stronger than expected 5.2% and higher than the previous month of 4.9%. All these figures echoed the larger narrative of the eurozone recovery, pushing EUR / USD higher.

Time Table

However, astute readers will notice that the price action really does not align with the new economic announcements. EUR / USD is already recovering before European markets opened, and actually traded slightly lower when the employment figures of the euro zone were released. Prices climbed again in early US session as US stocks were bearish, a move that is especially when considering that USD is expected to strengthen during the same period because of the refuge flow. This statement seemed to be precise when we see that gold prices actually climbed higher during the period mentioned above, while the USD / JPY traded lower as well, suggesting that traditional flows off of risk were alive and well, and therefore should also be broadly USD strengthened too.

therefore, that the EUR / USD managed to climb higher is a sign that underlying feeling of EUR / USD is bullish. This is again confirmed by the holding of 1.39 support when the Asian market is less than the increase. stochastic indicator suggests that price is in a down cycle right now, but we could also see curve Stochastic rebounded on the "support" level 50.0, lending strength to 1.39 maintenance support.

Table Daily

Daily Chart is less optimistic that prices may be in the midst of a bearish rejection Top Channel, which would open a return to the bottom of the English Channel. stochastic indicator on the daily chart is also looking towards a down cycle, but Stoch curve should preferably grow below 65.0 signal the strongest conviction decline. This is important because a breakout may be involved with holding support 1.39, which opens the possibility of a more foolproof Top channel. As such, more confirmation is needed to invalidate the escape and at the same time to establish a strong bearish momentum / long term

Links :.
USD / JPY - Yen Rally continues as Markets Fret Over Ukraine
week FX Europe - Euro Shrugs Off Ukraine and comments from Draghi
Gold Technicals - paring early gains as quiet market after Crimea Vote

This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

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