price action in AUD / USD yesterday behaved as expected. Bears have pushed down prices, but consolidation floor between 26 - 27th March stood, with prices rebounding more then during the US session. What is remarkable is that AUD / USD managed to hold onto the gains made during the US session and has not suffered significant declines, suggesting that the general sentiment is bullish. This upward trend is confirmed when suddenly pushed prices higher at 20 pm EDT, even if there were no new listings. Prices edged suffer due to less impressive numbers of manufacturing the official China as PMI and HSBC version, but any downward pressure was quickly suppressed with prices remaining above the highs of yesterday.
Given this strong upward pressure, we should have expected a much stronger reaction increase when the RBA rate decision was announced. The central bank held rates as expected and reiterated their position to keep rates steady (read: no more rate cuts) as an accommodative monetary policy is necessary in order to maintain economic activity. These are not something special that RBA said essentially the same thing in the announcement of the previous policy. But given the strong upward pressure underlying spotted earlier, a break of 0.93 was expected and at least prices would have had to stay near the figure round strength even if we fail to break it.
Unfortunately, the price has nothing like this, but the spectacular collapse at 0.9255. This highlights the strong resistance of 0.93, and suggest that there is ample traders looking to short AUD / USD at reasonable prices. Since the fundamentals of the Australian economy is really not outright positive at the moment, coupled with the fact that USD is expected to strengthen significantly, it should also be noted that AUD / USD remains on the high side historically and as such it is not surprising to see many bears in wait in the hope of greater adjustment in AUD / USD RBA with or without help.
timetable
0.93 is going to be the waterloo for current bullish momentum? At the moment there is very little evidence to show that a bearish reversal is in. Since the hourly chart we can see the remaining broadly supported prices, and a retest of 0.93 is still possible. A break of 0.92 round number support is necessary to completely turn bullish bias current, but the stochastic indicator does not favor such a scenario as Stoch curve will probably oversold when the support is reached 0.92, which reduces the probability of a strong monitoring by the bearish bias.
Daily chart
daily chart agrees, with prices likely to find support from the top of the wedge that would allow bulls together a retest 0.93 again. stochastic indicator is in agreement that the curve is inverted Stoch from higher and seems likely to cross the signal line, suggesting that we will probably not see a down cycle signal for the immediate future.
However, the downward direction is always favored in the future, and as such, we can not rule out a return of the bearish momentum that has been in the game there is exactly 1 year more recently the downward thrust which began in October 2013. given the continuous strengthening USD narrative will require significant change in Australia's economy and optimism for a bullish move long supported in AUD / USD. As such, traders who always want to go long AUD may want to explore other AUD crosses the square
Links :.
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This article is only for general information purposes. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or its subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
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